This week scientific leaders have been having their say in what the predictions of a record-breaking El Niño event will have on the UK and it is sobering  news.

It came after the UK’s Met Office published a blog which warned of the impact of this winter’s El Niño.

Prof Amanda Maycock, joint chair of the Met Office Academic Partnership and professor of climate dynamics, University of Leeds, said: “All signs point towards a very exceptional El Niño event this winter.  Similar forecasts from other meteorological centres show the Met Office’s El Niño prediction is in the middle of the pack, building confidence it is unlikely to be overestimating where we are headed.  Some forecasts show an even stronger event so we cannot rule this out.  We should be preparing for imminent effects worldwide, including heavy rain and flooding in south-western US, East Africa and south-east China as well as drought in the Amazon basin, Southern Africa and eastern Australia.  Although these seem like far flung places, these regions can affect what happens in the UK through global food supply and energy security.”

Her view has been backed by Dr Akshay Deoras, senior research scientist, National Centre for Atmospheric Science & Department of Meteorology, University of Reading.

“El Niño is growing as if there is no tomorrow, and there are still months of fuel left before the event reaches its peak this boreal winter.  There is no doubt that we are seeing a historic El Niño event developing, with impacts that could ripple across the globe through the rest of 2026 and well into 2027.  It is not just the Met Office’s climate model predicting an ‘unprecedented’ El Niño. Models from several meteorological centres around the world are pointing in the same direction, with an unusually strong level of agreement,” he explained. “The fingerprints of El Niño are already beginning to show.  South Asia’s crucial monsoon, one of the first major weather systems to feel its influence, is already weaker than average.  The region now faces growing concerns over drought and potential impacts on agriculture.

“El Niño has no robust link to the UK’s annual mean temperature or rainfall, but it can influence seasonal variability.  In particular, it can increase the likelihood of a wet, windy and mild autumn followed by a cooler, drier winter.  After an exceptionally dry summer across Wales and England, hard, dry soils may struggle to absorb intense rainfall.  Heavy downpours could therefore run off quickly, increasing the risk of flash flooding, surface water flooding and disruption.  Strong winds could also cause damage and put additional pressure on transport and infrastructure.”

“A cooler, drier winter could increase heating demand and put greater pressure on energy systems.  However, a stronger El Niño does not automatically mean stronger impacts in the UK.  Its biggest consequences may instead be indirect, as disruption to global agriculture and energy demand feeds through into food prices and energy costs.

“The event is also unfolding against a backdrop of rapid global warming.  El Niño’s additional heat is likely to push global temperatures even higher, raising the prospect of 2027 becoming the hottest year on record globally.  Long-term global warming remains the more significant driver of the UK’s rising temperatures and increasing risk of extreme heat.  It is still too early to say what next summer will bring for the UK.  However, El Niño’s additional warming, combined with an already warmer climate, could provide the ingredients for a hot summer.”

Prof Hayley Fowler, professor of climate change impacts, and director of Centre for Climate and Environmental Resilience, Newcastle University, said the global impact may well be deadly. “The super El Niño evolving in the Pacific will likely be the biggest ever recorded, reaching or exceeding the levels of the 1877-1878 El Niño which caused widespread impacts, including famines and around 50 million deaths (3-4 percent of the global population), mostly across Asia”

She added: “But this doesn’t necessarily mean we will see another scorching UK summer in 2027.  For the UK, the bigger concern is that El Niño causes wet and stormy autumns and winters.  The last strong El Niño in 2015-16 produced a series of storms, including the massive flooding from Storm Desmond.  It is likely we will see similar storms this coming winter.

“Importantly, the UK needs to be better prepared for extremes at both ends of the weather spectrum: hotter, drier periods that put pressure on water, agriculture and buildings, but also for heavier rainfall and flooding in winter months.

“Our infrastructure was largely designed for the climate of the past; increasingly, it has to cope with the extremes of the future and we must invest urgently in adaptation as well as rapidly reducing our global reliance on fossil fuels.”

An urgent call to action, but the world is still left to wait and see what the impact will be. The year ahead my well be one of resilience in the face of adversity.

Jon Guy, Editor
Emerging Risks