All eyes are turning to the COP 30 meeting in Brazil where once again the world will gather to discuss how best to tackle the climate crisis.

What has been lacking this year has been any discussion around what can be achieved at the conference. Instead we have seen expert after expert warn that the world is simply not doing enough nor doing it quickly enough to have any real impact in rising temperatures.

Experts at Oxford University this week said the world is on track to miss the 1.5°C climate target — at least temporarily — with global temperatures expected to overshoot before they can be brought back down.

That reality forces a difficult question: how can societies respond to the rising risks of a hotter world, and avoid making things worse in the process?

A study led by the team at the at the Environmental Change Institute (ECI), University of Oxford, have published “A Climate Risk Management Typology: Integrating Approaches to Reduce Risk”.

The typology shifts attention from temperature targets to risk management. By combining six key factors — from emissions cuts and carbon removal to adaptation and emerging technologies — it allows different “portfolios” of interventions to be compared. This approach makes trade-offs and synergies more visible, helping policymakers and practitioners avoid unintended consequences.

Lead author Camilla Hyslop explained: “Climate action is often treated in separate boxes — mitigation here, adaptation there. But in reality, these measures interact, sometimes in unexpected ways. Our typology helps people see the bigger picture, so that strategies to reduce risk don’t end up creating new ones.

“Climate change is not just about numbers on a thermometer – it’s about risk to people and ecosystems. By framing climate responses in terms of risk, we can have more joined-up conversations about which combinations of actions will really make us safer.”

The paper presents six illustrative scenarios, ranging from optimistic paths with rapid emissions cuts to stark futures where limited adaptation leaves societies overwhelmed. While focused on climate change, the same approach could also be applied to other global risks such as biodiversity loss or public health crises.

As overshoot becomes more likely, the researchers argue that integrated tools like this can help governments, communities, and businesses prepare for the uncertain decades ahead — not just by chasing temperature goals, but by managing the risks that matter most to people and ecosystems.

Host country Brazil has come in for its fair share of criticism over its management of the Amazon and fossil fuel strategies, and this year the event will be held under a US administration which has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement and has been busy deconstructing its climate regulations.

CPO 30 will be one of hope not expectation and its ramifications are sure to be felt.

Jon Guy, Editor,

Emerging Risks