As UNEP warned the world was failing in its efforts to cut then emissions needed to halt global warming the first nine months of the year has seen below average natural catastrophe losses from insurers.

New data from broker Gallagher Re found the first nine months of 2026 were characterised by a near-average frequency of natural catastrophe events, but a continued absence of major peak-loss disasters.

It added global economic losses reached at least $242 billion through September, with approximately $92 billion covered by private insurers and public insurance entities. These were the lowest Q1-Q3 economic and insured loss totals since 2015 and 2019 respectively.

The third quarter also marked the sixth consecutive quarter without an individual natural catastrophe generating more than $10 billion in insured losses. This comparatively favourable loss experience has supported strong industry earnings, robust capital positions and substantial reinsurance capacity ahead of the January 2027 renewals.

However, while 2026 has thus far been characterised by a notable absence of peak-loss events, Gallagher Re said we continue to see substantial ongoing high-frequency peril activity globally, particularly around severe convective storm, wildfire, and flood.

In addition, the underlying drivers of catastrophe risk continue to intensify — loss costs continue to be driven up by elevated inflation, increasing exposure growth and a multitude of other non-hazard factors.

Drawing on insights from Gallagher Re experts, the wider Gallagher group and leading scientific and academic sources, the report explored the physical, financial and socioeconomic factors influencing catastrophe losses. It also considers the emergence of a potentially very strong El Niño and its economic implications for insurers, including insights into agriculture, energy, water resources and global supply chains.

Key figures from the report include:

• $54 billion  economic loss events and $24 billion  insured loss events, both close to their decadal averages.
• Severe convective storms generated nearly 60% of global insured losses, including more than $43 billion in the United States and $3 billion loss events in Europe over the summer months.
• Exceptional heat, drought and wildfire activity affected large parts of Europe, North America and Asia.
• The Venezuela and Colombia earthquakes were the two costliest economic loss events globally during the first nine months of the year.
• The rapid development of El Niño is creating important considerations for catastrophe exposure, operational readiness and portfolio management heading into 2027.

While the first nine months have not hit the highs of recent years all too often there is as sting in the tail and the exceptional El Nino conditions are likely to create new natural threats across the planet.

The world will gather in Turkey at the start of next  month for COP31 with many nations talking a good game.

However, in recent weeks the International Maritime Organisation has reached an impasse on its efforts to create a roadmap for maritime decarbonisation and the latest  International Panel on Climate change (IPCC) meeting was adjourned again as there was no agreement as to when the panel’s next report will be published.

The world may not wish to hold its breath for any agreement on the fundamental challenges we face.

Jon Guy, Editor,

Emerging Risks