Mike Yarwood, managing director of loss prevention, TT Club examines the growing complexity of cargo risks and the need for a rethink of risk management strategies.

In recent months, cargo theft has rarely been far from the headlines – and rightly so. A nine-million-dollar smartphone heist at Heathrow. Organised rail gangs carrying out highly coordinated attacks on freight trains across rural Arizona and California, often involving deliberate system sabotage and armed encounters with law enforcement. These are not isolated curiosities. They are signals – and the question every supply chain operator should be asking is not which goods criminals are targeting now, but which goods will they target next.

That distinction matters enormously. Too many organisations have security protocols calibrated to yesterday’s threat landscape – anchored in historical loss data and last year’s incident reports. The gap between the agility of criminals and the inertia of risk management is one of the most significant and underappreciated vulnerabilities in global supply chains today.

Debunking the illusion of fixed risk

Cargo theft risk is not static. It evolves in direct response to underlying market forces, shifting supply and demand dynamics, regulatory change, and commodity pricing. Criminal groups are increasingly agile, adapting their targeting strategies to focus on goods that offer the greatest combination of value, liquidity, and ease of resale. Food and beverages, electronics, and pharmaceuticals consistently dominate theft statistics – because they benefit from stable demand, fragmented supply chains, and ready secondary markets.

But the more important story in this year’s data is what is changing. The BSI Consulting and TT Club 2025 Cargo Theft Report identifies the emergence of rare earth mineral theft in China, underscoring the adaptability of thieves to pivot to high-profile items amidst product constraints such as shortages, tariffs, and export controls. A rise in pharmaceutical thefts in India, which historically have been infrequent, now suggests elevated exposure heading into 2026 without enhanced enforcement and corporate security measures. These are not random developments. Scarcity, price volatility, and regulatory pressure can all elevate the attractiveness of goods that were previously considered lower risk.

A commodity that sits quietly in the low-risk category today can become a primary criminal focus within months – not because of anything an operator has done, but because of forces entirely outside their control. Operators are not always at fault – but without updated controls, they will bear the consequences. For cargo interests, this means that historical loss experience alone is no longer sufficient to inform effective risk mitigation strategies.

The reality of market-driven theft: The copper lesson

One commodity that clearly illustrates this dynamic relationship between market forces and theft exposure is copper – a globally traded industrial metal, integral to construction, energy infrastructure, electronics, and the transition to electrification. In recent years, average copper prices have remained at historically elevated levels, driven by sustained global demand, constrained supply, and long-term structural pressures linked to decarbonisation and infrastructure investment. As the unit value of copper rises, so too does its attractiveness to organised theft groups.

Theft is not limited to finished goods – it increasingly extends to coils, cabling, cathodes, scrap, and semi-processed forms stored at yards, terminals, warehouses, and production facilities, or transported via road and rail. These losses are often opportunistic in nature but are equally enabled by weak perimeter security, insufficient oversight, and limited appreciation of how rapidly a commodity’s risk profile can change.

The businesses holding or transporting these goods have often not recalibrated their controls to reflect that new reality. That is the vulnerability – and it applies far beyond copper.

The industry’s need to respond dynamically

Effective cargo theft risk management requires dynamic, rather than static, mitigation strategies. Security controls need to be adjusted according to the value, liquidity, and attractiveness of cargo at any given point in time.

This starts with market intelligence: actively monitoring indicators that may signal heightened exposure – such as sustained price increases, supply shortages, or regulatory shifts. Goods that were previously treated as routine cargo may warrant enhanced controls when market conditions change. Failure to reassess risk in light of these external drivers can result in security measures lagging behind the threat.

For higher-risk commodities such as copper, this may include enhanced physical security at storage locations, tighter access controls, improved inventory reconciliation, and increased scrutiny of subcontracted transport providers. During transit, routing, parking practices, and dwell times should be reviewed to minimise exposure, particularly in known theft hotspots or unsecured staging areas.

But the dimension that is commonly overlooked is organisational. Collaboration between commercial, operational, and risk management teams is essential to ensure that emerging threats are recognised and addressed promptly. In practice, the breakdown often happens at exactly that junction – the commercial team knows the commodity price has surged, but that intelligence never reaches the security or logistics team in a form that prompts action. Fixing that internal information flow is as important as any physical security measure.

The report highlights how criminals are increasingly targeting goods influenced by geopolitical tension, export controls, or supply constraints. Early warning indicators drawn from claims trends, intelligence reporting, and market analysis should be used to identify these shifts before losses escalate.

Ultimately, anticipating what thieves will target next is as important as understanding what they targeted last year. By aligning loss prevention strategies with underlying market forces, cargo interests can better protect themselves against evolving theft patterns. Proactive monitoring of commodity markets – combined with flexible, intelligence-led risk mitigation – will be essential in reducing exposure in an environment where criminal behaviour is increasingly driven by economic opportunity.

Cargo theft is following the market closely. The question is whether your risk management is too.