US won’t labour into recession – Yellen

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen  has said the country is not facing the threat of recession, adding the boom in job opportunities offset any recessionary pressure.

When asked if the US would meet the technical definition for a recession of two quarters of contraction, Yellen said the issue was more complex.

“That’s not the technical definition. There is an organisation called the National Bureau of Economic Research that looks at a broad range of data in deciding whether or not there is a recession,” she explained. “And most of the data that they look at right now continues to be strong. I would be amazed if they would declare this period to be a recession, even if it happens to have two quarters of negative growth. We have a very strong labour market. when you are creating almost 400,000 jobs a month, that is not a recession.”

Yellen added some economic slow-down was “healthy right now” with such a strong labour market, as the Federal Reserve addresses inflation and we transition to steady and sustainable growth.

“Well, look, the economy is slowing down,” she added. “Last year it grew very rapidly at about 5.5%, and that succeeded in putting people back to work who had lost their jobs during the pandemic. The labour market is now extremely strong. Even just during the last three months, job gains averaged 375,000. This is not an economy that’s in recession. But we’re in a period of transition in which growth is slowing and that’s necessary and appropriate and we need to be growing at a steady and sustainable pace. So there is a slowdown and businesses can see that and that’s appropriate, given that people now have jobs and we have a strong labour market.

“But you don’t see any of the signs now — a recession is a broad-based contraction that affects many sectors of the economy—we just don’t have that. Consumer spending remains solid. It’s continuing to grow. Output, industrial output has grown in five of the six most recent months. Credit quality remains very strong. household balance sheets are generally in good shape.

“But inflation is way too high. And, you know, the Fed is charged with putting in place policies that will bring inflation down and I expect them to be successful. The Administration, for its part, is supplementing those Fed policies with things we can do. We’ve cut the deficit by a record one-and-a-half trillion dollars this year, releases of gas from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve are putting some downward pressure on gas prices. we have seen gas prices just in recent weeks come down by about 50 cents, and there should be more in the pipeline. And hopefully we will pass a bill that will lower prescription drug costs and maintain current levels of health care costs.”

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