The Big Risks for ’26 – Soft market, hard choices
Jonathan Cope, managing director, UK Specialty Lines at Intact Insurance said the year ahead provides the opportunity to reset the market’s foundations.
If there’s one lesson 2025 delivered with absolute clarity, it’s that even seasoned insurance professionals can still be taken by surprise. Soft markets aren’t new, but even for those with older hats, the pace of this one has been striking.
As a result, for some of the market it has been a challenging year. Not challenging in the sense of crisis, but in the sense of discomfort; tighter margins, greater price sensitivity, and competitive dynamics that felt more intense than we might have expected and show no signs of easing.
But periods like this also reset the foundations of what matters.
Despite the conditions in which we find ourselves, moving into 2026, the industry’s centre of gravity cannot sit solely on rate. It has to return to proposition, and the overall value a market brings to a customer beyond the number on the page.
Brokers know this better than anyone. When clients face pressure on operating costs, the instinct is often to focus on premium alone. But the true differentiators, such as claims capability, global reach, technical expertise, responsiveness, and a willingness to stay consistent through the cycle, become even more important in soft conditions.
Consistency, in particular, is underestimated until it’s absent. Appetite shifts, capacity ebbs and flows, and priorities can change quickly when the market moves. In that environment, steady hands matter. They don’t necessarily make headlines, but they do make a difference.
Resolve also becomes a defining variable. Some younger members of our industry have never really operated in a prolonged soft cycle. It requires a different muscle set. You need resilience after a tough renewal, the discipline to maintain underwriting standards when competitive pressure rises and the persistence to keep building relationships even after losing business you believed you could serve well. Those abilities aren’t captured in any algorithm, but they shape outcomes.
Will the market harden in 2026? It’s a hard one to call. It would be unwise of me to try and predict whether peace will prevail in Ukraine or if global trade tensions with the US will ease, but even without the geopolitical uncertainty, right now the signals remain mixed.
Some speculate that the softening will moderate, others expect stability, while a few see selective areas where capacity might tighten. But the broader macro conditions, such as sluggish economic growth, continued cost pressure for clients, and readily available capacity, don’t yet point towards a rapid pivot.
What seems more certain is that next year will bring accelerated change in how business is transacted. The digital transformation (in particular the clamor around AI), is not theoretical anymore. It’s happening. But the human dimension remains central. Relationships, judgement, and trust continue to be the real currency of placement. Digital efficiency can enhance those qualities, but it cannot replace them.
One area that deserves our attention, as we look to the year ahead, is the evolving role of MGAs in an increasingly digital marketplace. MGAs have been quick to adopt new technology, data-led underwriting and streamlined distribution, which, for the most part has had a positive impact, bringing much needed innovation to parts of the market that needed it.
However, at the same time, the growth of MGA capacity has contributed to the sense of surplus we have all been feeling. Digital platforms make it easier than ever for capital to enter the market, often with narrowly defined appetites and a strong focus on volume.
In a soft market, that combination can accelerate price pressure and shorten decision cycles. For brokers, this creates both opportunity and complexity. Faster turnaround, but also the need to carefully assess durability, claims backing and long-term alignment. As the era of digitisation continues into 2026, the challenge will be ensuring that efficiency and innovation enhance underwriting quality, rather than just amplifying excess capacity.
Elsewhere, balancing rate and retention will remain the tightrope for every insurer in 2026. Push too hard in one direction and you risk losing valued clients; lean too far in the other and profitability erodes. Brokers will be navigating this same tension from the opposite side of the table. It makes honest dialogue, not just at renewal, but throughout the year, essential.
This all means that for brokers and insurers alike, next year will be a year where helping clients understand value is more important than ever. Not just coverage and price, but service quality, claims experience, underwriting engagement, and the long-term strength of the partners standing behind the policy. Soft markets can make all insurers look interchangeable. In reality, they are not.
2025 may have been uncomfortable at times, but it reminded us that insurance isn’t simply a pricing exercise. It’s a long-term partnership between customers, brokers, and markets. And in 2026, that partnership will matter more… not less.







Jackson School of Geosciences/Tiannong “Skyler” Dong