Emerging risk discussions often miss the mark by focusing on distant hypotheticals or risks that have already materialised. Andrew Pryde, group chief risk officer at SiriusPoint, explains how embedding these conversations into everyday processes can turn emerging risk into a practical tool for shaping strategy.

Talking about emerging risks rarely sparks excitement, neither for the risk teams tasked with producing a report on such a broad topic nor for the audience expected to figure out what to do with the findings. Too often, these conversations drift toward risks so distant and speculative they feel irrelevant, or they retreat to the comfort of familiar risks that have already materialized and are part of everyday management. Let’s face it, the news is awash with references of geopolitical risks, social inflation, nuclear verdicts and the like.

But here’s the real question: what lies in the space between? Is there a middle ground worth exploring?

The challenge often stems from framing emerging risks through a broad, macro lens. A more meaningful approach begins at the functional level, through the perspective of each business unit and within existing risk processes. Emerging risk shouldn’t be treated as a separate, bolt-on exercise that produces a static report. Instead, it should be woven into regular risk and control assessments, making it an active, ongoing part of the conversation.

The real value of discussing emerging risks isn’t prediction; it’s about stress-testing and refining the company’s strategy over time. This equips the business to tackle risks head-on when they arise. Framed this way, the conversation becomes relevant and engaging for stakeholders, leading to practical, actionable outcomes. Think of it as a rolling SWOT analysis, which is grounded in real-world insights from those closest to the business.

Where to begin?

A practical starting point is to use the regular risk and control assessment meetings to ask individuals what in the future concerns them most.  This can be especially valuable for underwriting and claims teams, thinking about how the risks associated with their products might evolve. Scenario testing how the risks driving their products may evolve over time moves the discussion beyond how these might be best avoided, managed or transferred, into a mindset of product innovation, particularly when coupled with underwriting teams listening closely to their clients’ needs and worries.

Emerging risks is also about making connections over time. It is not always initially clear how a global macro threat (for example water scarcity) might directly affect an insurance company.  However, when combined with another development, such as the rapid growth in AI and the considerable water need for cooling purposes, the emerging risk for product coverage and pricing suddenly becomes clearer.

Some people excel at exploring future possibilities. By forming cross-functional teams  of these forward-thinkers and providing a safe environment, valuable conversations emerge. For example, creating an ‘emerging risk sandbox’ allows ideas to flourish beyond the constraints of day-to-day operations.

Turning curiosity into strategy

Emerging risk is a journey not a destination. It is a journey that requires ongoing curiosity, collaboration and strategic foresight.  You also might be surprised by how much of this untapped latent talent already exists in your organisation waiting to be awoken.

Ironically, these ideas are not new.  However, approaching assessments differently, enabling emerging risks to be part of the regular corporate discussions, creates a culture and mindset that leads to a more useful outcome.  Just as importantly, it is more likely to be undertaken with enthusiasm.

So, what are the most likely emerging risks for 2026?  The honest answer is they are not yet visible, but with the right mindset, patterns will start to emerge as the year unfolds. And with a strong framework in place, those conversations can lead to meaningful insights and a positive shift in strategy.