The Big Risks for ’26 – insurers need to anticipate and mitigate

As we step into 2026, Karen Dayal, chief underwriting officer for commercial lines at Aviva says the risks that dominated insurance in 2025 haven’t disappeared – they’ve evolved instead.

Cyber threats are becoming more sophisticated, technology is advancing at speed, climate pressures are intensifying, and market dynamics are shifting.

Our industry’s role is not only to react to these challenges but to anticipate and mitigate them – helping build a more resilient market that can help our customers face risks with confidence.

Cyber in the headlines

Cyber risk remains a top priority for 2026, after high-profile breaches dominated headlines in 2025 and made many businesses take notice. These incidents can have wide-ranging effects far beyond initial operational disruption, including reputational damage and supply chain breakdowns. While large corporates often make the news, in 2026, every business should be considering its exposure to cyber risk, regardless of size or level of digitisation.

Reacting quickly to cyber threats is crucial, but proactive measures matter just as much. That’s why Aviva’s exposure management team partnered with CyberCube, a leader in cyber risk analytics. Using AI, CyberCube maps the behaviour and tactics of cyber threat actors and the technologies they most frequently target. This enables us to pinpoint companies in our commercial portfolio that may be most vulnerable, helping them – and us – better manage cyber risk.

Harnessing AI and our people

Evolving at speed, technology and AI are transforming how insurers, brokers, and customers operate. But with opportunity comes complexity, and rapid innovation introduces new exposures and considerations that challenge our existing ways of working.

At Aviva, we welcome opportunities to innovate and become more efficient to achieve better results for our customers. However, innovation must be balanced with strong governance to protect the integrity of our organisation and the expertise of our underwriters and exposure managers.

Our recent partnership with hyperexponential explores how AI can enhance pricing sophistication, enabling our underwriters to make smarter, AI-augmented decisions on individual risks, whilst streamlining manual processes. Our portfolio managers also benefit from further insights, driving stronger pricing and better portfolio outcomes.

Keeping climate on the agenda

Climate risk isn’t new for 2026, but keeping it high on the agenda is essential to sustaining progress. We saw a rise in climate-related events in 2025, from storms to wildfires, and similar pressures are expected this year. This is driving demand for robust exposure management, including the use of catastrophe modelling, alongside forward-looking climate strategies that support a sustainable book.

As insurers pursue their own net-zero ambitions, we can also help clients progress toward theirs. Aviva now offers corporate clients a comprehensive suite of renewable energy solutions and recently launched a new real estate and construction proposition to support lower emission building practices. This includes lower carbon alternatives like Mass Timber, as well as innovative options such as living walls, blue roofs, and on-site power generation. By engaging us early in the building process, clients can explore a range of solutions that align with their goals – supported by innovative underwriting and risk management expertise that keeps resilience and sustainability front of mind.

Navigating a changing market

With the arrival of a softening market, underwriting discipline remains more important than ever. Rigorous risk assessment and sensible pricing strategies are essential to navigating change and underpinning a sustainable, resilient industry that can meet its obligations to policyholders. For Aviva’s commercial underwriting office, that means embracing new technology and insights to further embed solid underwriting discipline, maintain sustainable growth, and continue protecting our customers.

Looking ahead

Looking ahead, 2026 will be shaped by innovation, insight, resilience and collaboration. Success will come from embracing potential and amplifying it through the expertise of our people – an area we continue to invest in. By working together, we can not only navigate the big risks of 2026 but find opportunity in facing them.

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