Nina Arquint, CEO UK & Ireland, Swiss Re Corporate Solutions tells Emerging Risk why the world is moving into a new era of greater interconnection of risks, and the (re)insurance industry needs to react to support its clients.

Elevated natural catastrophe losses are resetting expectations across the commercial insurance market. Artificial intelligence is moving rapidly from experimentation to enterprise-wide deployment. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are reshaping trade routes, regulation, supply chains and capital flows at pace.

Each of these forces is significant in isolation.

What defines today’s risk environment, however, is not simply that risks are intensifying – it is that they are converging.

Emerging risks are no longer distant signals on the horizon. They are interacting in ways that challenge established assumptions about volatility, insurability and long-term business planning.

At Swiss Re Corporate Solutions, we define an emerging risk as one that cannot yet be fully quantified due to limited data, but which carries the potential for significant future impact. Increasingly, many of these risks are moving from theoretical to tangible – and doing so simultaneously.

From single threats to risk clusters

Swiss Re Institute’s last SONAR report shows that risks are forming clear clusters: natural catastrophes and extreme weather; geopolitical and trade tensions; technology and data; demographic and societal shifts.

Extreme weather events are no longer solely physical loss events. They are supply chain disruptors, infrastructure stress tests and sources of prolonged business interruption. Secondary perils are generating consistent claims activity, contributing to what increasingly appears to be a structurally higher loss environment.

Geopolitical developments are adding another layer of unpredictability. Trade disputes, sanctions regimes, regional conflicts and regulatory fragmentation are influencing where companies operate, how they source materials and how they deploy capital. For multinational businesses, geopolitical exposure is now central to strategy.

Technology overlays both of these clusters. AI promises significant productivity gains and underwriting innovation. Yet rapid deployment also introduces operational, governance and liability considerations that boards are still assessing.

This clustering effect creates systemic exposure.

The pandemic offered a powerful lesson. Initially seen largely as a life and health event, it ultimately had profound consequences for property and casualty portfolios. Established assumptions about how risks behave across lines were challenged.

Today’s interconnected landscape requires us to question assumptions earlier – and more rigorously.

Structurally higher volatility

Natural catastrophe losses are not reverting to historical norms. Extreme weather is testing infrastructure across developed and emerging markets alike. At the same time, geopolitical shocks can alter operating conditions almost overnight – whether through supply chain disruption, regulatory change or regional instability.

Layered onto this is the transformation of the insurance value chain itself. Digitalisation is changing how risks are placed and how capital enters the market. Access to risk pools is evolving, and new forms of capital are influencing competitive dynamics.

For risk managers, this creates a strategic question: is insurance primarily a cost to be optimised, or a strategic tool within a broader risk framework?

If insurance is treated purely as a licence to operate, the focus remains on price and short-term outcomes. But if it forms part of a wider strategy, the conversation becomes more substantive: how exposed is the business to geopolitical transmission channels? Where do extreme weather events intersect with supply chain fragility? Which digital dependencies could amplify operational disruption?

The market increasingly rewards disciplined risk thinking and clarity of purpose.

Geopolitics as a multiplier

Geopolitical risk today acts less as a standalone threat and more as a multiplier of others.

Trade restrictions can intensify the impact of a natural catastrophe by limiting access to critical materials. Regulatory divergence can complicate cross-border data flows or AI deployment. Regional instability can disrupt energy supply and infrastructure reliability.

For boards, the challenge is not to predict every geopolitical event. It is to identify where the organisation is structurally exposed – whether through concentrated suppliers, overreliance on specific markets or complex regulatory dependencies.

In an interconnected environment, vulnerability often sits at the intersection of risks, not within a single category. 

The importance of dialogue

Addressing emerging risks is not an exact science. It requires combining analytics with expertise – and fostering open dialogue between insurers and clients.

When I meet clients, the most valuable conversation is not about last year’s renewal. It is about risk philosophy.

How does the organisation define risk appetite?

Where are systemic vulnerabilities most acute?

How might geopolitical developments compound natural catastrophe losses or digital disruption?

These discussions allow insurers and corporates to move beyond transactional exchanges and towards strategic engagement.

Short-term thinking is unlikely to provide stability in a world defined by interdependence. Flexibility and adaptability are essential.

Beyond protection

Advanced insurance programmes should evolve with the business, not replicate last year’s structure. As risks become more complex and harder to quantify, companies are increasingly turning to innovative alternative risk transfer solutions – such as captives and parametrics – to manage emerging or difficult-to-insure exposures.

Captives can help organisations retain selected risks and build experience themselves. Parametric solutions – triggered by predefined metrics such as wind speed or rainfall –  provide rapid, transparent payouts, especially when extreme weather or other shocks disrupt cash flow. Structured and multi-year programmes can smooth volatility and reduce reliance on market cycles when traditional capacity tightens.

Innovation in risk management is not about gadgets. It is about designing solutions that fit the risks you actually have in your portfolio.

That means combining solutions across lines and time horizons, using data to understand exposures, and partnering with the public sector where systemic risks exceed private market capacity.

In the age of interconnected risk, it is key to think systemically and ensure your risk management is as fluid as the risks themselves.