As the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked amid hopes that a peace deal can be reached one expert has warned the pressure on global supply chains is rising.

US president Donald Trump suspended his efforts to reopen the strait as 1600 vessels and 20,000 seafarers remain stranded amid talk that negotiations between the USA and Iran on a peace dela are progressing.

However, there is ongoing concerns that Iran is looking to impose a tax on vessels transiting the strait as part of any deal.

Shaan Burton, (above) partner at law firm Kennedys explained: “Recent escalation in the conflict continues to place pressure on global supply chains. Commercial container shipping has been targeted, and, in response, several shipping lines are adjusting operations by terminating transits early, diverting cargo to alternative ‘safe’ ports and applying additional charges for onward transit. These operational responses are contributing to congestion, delay, increased insurance costs, and growing pressure on contractual performance across supply chains.”

Many shipping lines will be relying on Bill of Lading terms which will more often than not contain contractual liberties permitting route changes or early termination in defined circumstances. Where transits are terminated, shipping lines are charging additional fees for discharge operations or to move cargo to alternative ports.

On the threat of Iran taxing vessels, she added: “Market reporting has referenced possible transit toll demands, with figures cited as much as $2 million per vessel, adding a further cost and compliance dimension. Coupled with maritime enforcement measures, this creates additional operational uncertainty for shipowners and cargo interests deciding whether, how and on what terms cargo can move through the region.

“Congestion at alternative ports remains a key issue, exacerbating delay and giving rise to practical challenges around cargo handling and care, particularly for refrigerated cargo where terminal capacity and monitoring are critical.

“There is significant disruption with cargo in the wrong place at the wrong time with no easy, or cost effective, solution to get cargo back on track.”

Burton continued: “Operational disruption is feeding into broader supply chain pressure. Increased freight rates, surcharges and energy costs are making cargo movement more expensive. The real question is who bears those additional costs. The supply chain is already considerably strained, and it is questionable as to whether the supply chain has the resilience to withstand any further disruption.

“Journey times have increased significantly, particularly where routes are diverted to avoid high‑risk areas. Routing around the Cape of Good Hope can add at least two weeks to transit times.

“Logistics costs are reported to be up by around 30%, with potential gaps in the supply of energy and raw materials, placing pressure on fuel‑dependent sectors such as motor and manufacturing.”

She concluded: “Developments around tolls, blockades, and political negotiations highlight how quickly geopolitical risk can translate into operational and commercial disruption. For insureds, this means managing rising costs, delays, and breach of contractual terms. For insurers, it means anticipating  claims patterns, dispute frequency and scrutiny of policy terms.

“The supply chain has had its fair share of disruption in recent years, yet it has managed to adapt and deliver through the toughest of environments. The supply chain has  endured and survived Brexit, COVID, the cost-of-living crisis and the Ukraine war.

“ The Iran conflict is yet another challenge and one that the industry will need to put in measures to ensure the movement of cargo continues for another day. The market has indicated towards a move of ‘just in case’ rather than ‘just in time’ in an attempt to have a sustainable buffer to supply chain disruption.”