Risk of £5 billion flood cost increases for UK

An updated UK Flood Model from JBA Risk Management suggests that the risk of a £5 billion flood event could increase significantly under a likely prospective climate change scenario.

JBA’s latest UK Flood Model now includes two climate change scenarios alongside baseline data, with new analysis revealing insights into future flood risk.

Analysis from the model highlights that a 200-year flood event could increase by 42% to £5 billion by 2050 under an intermediate scenario.

Average annual flood losses from flood are also estimated at £527 million to UK residential properties under a baseline scenario, which could rise by 87% by 2050 under a no-action warming scenario.

According to JBA, we could see a 120% increase in the cost of surface water flash floods, particularly in the south and east of the UK under a no-action warming scenario, while

the greatest change in flood losses is expected to come from coastal flooding, with 120% increase in coastal flood loss under an intermediate warming scenario and 150% increase under a no-action warming scenario by 2050.

Greatest increases in river flood are seen in central and western Scotland, north and mid Wales, the Humber, and the Bristol Channel.

JBA said that it is vital that (re)insurers start to understand this future risk, today: “Assessing potential future changes in risk and loss not only enables organisations to meet regulatory exercises, which require organisations to understand and own their view of risk better than ever before, but also to make effective business decisions now and in the future.”