A leading think tank has warned the world has to dramatically up its investment in renewable energies if it is to meet the target to limit global warming to below 2°C.

The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) has published a new report, “Navigating Energy Transitions – Mapping The Road to 1.5°C”  which examines the implications of 1.5°C scenarios for the phase-out of fossil fuels and the scale-up to renewables, barriers to that transition and solutions for the challenges faced.

The IISD warned the world must set itself on a pathway consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C to avoid “the most disruptive and tragic consequences of climate change on people, ecosystems, and economies”.

“This is extremely urgent and every fraction of a degree matters,” it added. “At present rates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the world’s remaining carbon budget will be extinguished in approximately 8 years. The world can still achieve the 1.5°C goal, but the window to do so is narrowing quickly. Governments must urgently exceed the ambition of their current Paris Agreement pledges.”

The report said it was now urgent that action was taken.

“Our comparison of multiple climate and energy scenarios finds that, for the world to reach net-zero emissions in line with the 1.5°C target, global oil and gas production needs to decline rapidly,” it stated. “According to the median of selected IPCC scenarios and the IEA’s Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) scenario, oil and gas production should decline respectively by 15% and 30% by 2030, and by 65% by 2050, compared to 2020 levels.

“Production volumes from already operating fields and those currently under development would generate more oil and gas emissions than would be permissible under these pathways. It implies that no new oil and gas fields should be developed, as they would either generate stranded assets, or push the world beyond the 1.5°C target, unless currently producing fields’ operations are significantly curtailed.”

The IISD said enabling a structural shift in the energy sector in line with 1.5°C pathways will require significantly scaling up the annual rate of renewable technology deployment.

“Our report finds that policies currently deployed in support of renewable energy fall short of these objectives: according to the selected IPCC scenarios and IEA’s NZE scenario, by 2030, annual capacity additions should be at least 2.5 times higher for wind and 1.5 times higher for solar energy compared to current policy forecasts. All other analysed scenarios broadly confirm the need to rapidly add far more wind and solar capacity than planned, and generally point to even higher required rates of deployment for the two technologies.”

To achieve this, the IISD said investments in renewables will need to increase rapidly during the course of this decade.

“Our selection of IPCC 1.5°C pathways shows that, between now and 2030, total annual investments in both wind and solar should amount to about $830 billion,” the report explained. “Current investment plans do not come close to such amounts. Unless new policies are implemented, there will be an annual investment gap of more than $450 billion until 2030. However, estimates show that capital and operational expenditures for the exploration and extraction of oil and gas in new fields, incompatible with IPCC, IEA 1.5°C pathways, and our broader selection of scenarios, are expected to reach $570 billion annually by 2030, for a cumulative total of $4.2 trillion between 2020 and 2030 By themselves, these investments would suffice to bridge the entire investment gap for wind and solar by 2030.”

The IISD said enabling a structural shift in the energy sector in line with 1.5°C pathways will require significantly scaling up the annual rate of renewable technology deployment.