The New Zealand Security Intelligence |service (NZSIS) has warned that national security challenges to New Zealand have intensified over the past year against a backdrop of increasing geopolitical uncertainty.

The fourth edition of the NZSIS Security Threat Environment Report highlighted the flow-on effects for New Zealand from the most challenging global threat environment in recent times.

It comes at a time when national security in countries across the world has come under threat. with In July an alleged Iranian-affiliated campaign against water plants in the USA began and this week the UK government said it would be increasing its security following an cyber-attack on a power station which again is believed to have been backed by Iran.

The NZSIS 2026 report makes six key assessments about New Zealand’s current threat environment:

• Geopolitical upheaval is bringing downstream threats to New Zealand’s safety and security.
• New Zealand’s public and private sectors are being targeted by foreign states and their proxies to gain access to critical assets including intellectual property, innovative technology and other non-public information.
• Diaspora community groups in New Zealand are being unfairly targeted by foreign states and their proxies seeking to limit the democratic rights and freedoms they enjoy as New Zealanders.
• More insiders are causing harm to their organisations and our national security through actions that are either deliberate, influenced by outsiders or are unwitting.
• The national terrorism threat level remains at Possible. The most likely attack scenario would involve a lone actor targeting people in a crowded place using weapons that are easily accessible. Their mobilisation to violence will likely happen with little to no intelligence forewarning.
• Violent extremism in New Zealand is being influenced by a broad range of ideologies, a mix of domestic and international events, and the mainstreaming of extremist online rhetoric.

NZSIS Director-General Andrew Hampton (pic) said malign behaviours and activities seen over the last year are proving even more threatening for a country the size of New Zealand that is located in the South Pacific.

“Countries are being buffeted by shifting geopolitical forces, unprecedented levels of polarisation in societies, ongoing economic pressures and rapid advances in artificial intelligence,” he explained. “The flow-on effects for New Zealand’s national security makes up a complex and volatile picture.

“We are highly interconnected with the rest of the world, we produce leading innovations, hold important security partnerships and are located in the strategically important Pacific region, close to Antarctica. This makes New Zealand not only geopolitically relevant, but attractive to threat actors who are unsentimental in their pursuit of our information and their influence over us.”

“Global events are not the sole source of New Zealand’s security challenges – some of our concerns are home grown. Extremist voices from within our shores are contributing to a polarised information environment, and we see some advocating for the use of violence. Young and vulnerable people are particularly susceptible to readily available online violent extremist narratives, which are often exacerbated by the use of artificial intelligence.” added Hampton.

He said the report aims to help New Zealanders better understand the security threats it faces and the risks that require managing, while also providing practical advice and resources to support all those who may be at risk.

“As I’ve said previously, we’re not trying be alarmist or cause fear. It’s about being as open as NZSIS can on what we see so that sectors, communities and individuals have the information they need to keep themselves and New Zealand safe,” Hampton continued. “Our colleagues at the GCSB’s National Cyber Security Centre are taking the same approach when talking about cyber-security. Put simply, national security is not something exclusively owned by the security and intelligence agencies – it must be a collective effort.

“I’ve been pleased to see how conversations about our national security have matured and evolved since we first published this report three years ago. It is regularly referenced in a range of different contexts, including by the media in its ongoing reporting of the important issues facing New Zealand.  I welcome this because it’s exactly how we want the report to be used.”