There are new warnings that the socio-economic impact of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is becoming a looming crisis.

A new report from the OECD found that NCDs profoundly undermine people’s health, wellbeing, and the wider economy, and are set to increase by 31% over the next 25 years due to population ageing alone. The picture is bleaker when considering risk factors:  although some such as smoking and air pollution have declined in recent decades, these gains have been largely offset by a steep increase in obesity, with changes overall since 2010 projected to add 230 000 extra cases of NCDs per year to 2050 across the OECD.

The OECD’s modelling shows that four major NCDs (cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and diabetes) account for nearly half (44%) of premature deaths in the OECD and increase the risk of mental ill‑health by up to 25%. It added their impact extends beyond health: they lower wages, reduced productivity and increase pressure on health systems. Eliminating these NCDs would reduce health spending by 41% and contribute to an average 3.8% increase in annual GDP between 2026 and 2050.

“Much of the NCD burden is avoidable, with prevention delivering greater benefits than disease management,” the report stated. “According to this new analysis, countries can achieve major improvements by focusing on key risk factors. On average across the OECD, addressing a country’s leading risk factor alone, typically tackling obesity, delivers almost half of the total potential impact on NCD cases, healthcare spending and GDP, while tackling the top three can deliver almost 90% of the gain.”

However, the OECD added: “Reaching these objectives requires an integrated strategy built on three mutually reinforcing pillars: providing individuals with information and education that enable healthier choices; shaping environments that make these choices easier to adopt; and strengthening health systems so that they deliver effective prevention and care.”

It explained: “Despite decades of national efforts, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) continue to rise. Between 1990 and 2023, the prevalence of cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has increased by 36% and 49% respectively in the OECD (39% and 41% respectively in the 27 Member States of the European Union (EU27, hereafter “EU”)), while the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) has increased by more than 27% (21% in the EU). Diabetes prevalence rose by 86% in the OECD, and 64% in the EU. In 2023, one in ten people in the OECD had diabetes, and one in eight lived with CVD (one in twelve and one in seven respectively in the EU).

The report said there are three main reasons why the prevalence of NCDs continues to grow.

“First, while progress has been made in reducing certain risk factors, such as air pollution, smoking, harmful alcohol consumption, and physical inactivity, this has been undermined by steep increases in obesity.

“Second, improvements in survival rates, an unequivocal public health success, mean that more people live for longer periods with chronic conditions, increasing the demand for care and the complexity of services.

“Third, population ageing means that more people are reaching the ages at which NCDs are most common. Even if risk factor prevalence, survival rates and population size remain constant, the number of new NCD cases is expected to grow by 31% in the OECD (and 29% in the EU) between 2026 and 2050 due to population ageing alone. The prevalence of multimorbidity is expected to rise by 75% in the OECD (70% in the EU) and annual per capita health spending on NCDs is projected to grow by more than 50% in the OECD (54% in the EU).”

The report said NCDs affect far more than health outcomes: they influence how people live and work, strain families and communities, and impose a growing burden on health systems and economies.

“Public health amenable NCDs (those preventable through public health interventions) account for more than four in ten premature deaths (i.e. deaths occurring before the age of 75) across OECD and EU countries,” it explained. “In addition to improving physical health, action on NCDs can also improve mental health outcomes, as NCDs have been shown to increase the risk of depression.

“The economic opportunities are equally substantial. According to calculations using the OECD Strategic Public Health Planning for Non-Communicable Diseases (SPHeP) NCDs model, if there were no NCDs, health expenditure would be about 40% lower, and average GDP nearly 4% higher, in the OECD and the EU over the next 25 years.”

The OECD concluded: “The challenge of addressing NCDs is complex, given the multiple risk factors and the wide range of policy entry points. However, clear priorities can be identified by assessing the relative impact of different risk factors on health and the economy, and by benchmarking performance against top performing countries.”