A leading insurer has said the number of political violence claims arising from the Middle East conflict is set to increase as one leading military figure said the vital Strait of Hormuz may be closed for years not months.

Wesley Selwyn, class underwriter for political violence and terrorism at Antares said the renewed wave of strikes in the Middle East will have implications.

“The latest exchange of strikes between the United States and Iran in the past 48 hours should serve as a reminder to the Political Violence market that the crisis in the Middle East is barely paused; especially with the damage and loss of life at Kuwait International airport yesterday morning,” he added. “What began a little over three months ago when the US & Israel launched attacks on Iran is far from resolved and has the potential to re-escalate at any moment.”

“With mixed messages coming from the leadership on both sides a permanent ceasefire appears some way off.  The Lebanon issue appears to have become Israel’s primary focus for the time being as they continue to strike the south of the country. Iran’s insistence that any lasting end to the conflict must include Lebanon has the potential to draw negotiations out further – giving time for more strikes from either side.

“Both the US and Israel need the Strait of Hormuz to open but neither side seem likely to back down first.”

Selwyn continued: “With vast amounts of PV business written before the events that followed 28th February still on risk in the region, and with many markets adding further exposure, at increased rates, following the initial strikes on Iran and their widespread retaliation, there remains the risk of further significant claims from the Gulf states.”

“The incident at Kuwait’s International Airport will have affected not only the operations of the airport and the airlines that use it but also businesses within the terminal building raising the possibility of claims on extensions such as Denial of Access or Loss of Attraction, as well as the standard coverage for Property Damage and Business Interruption. Regardless of whether the airport was deliberately targeted or not; the risk to insureds remains very real.

“PV insurers need to be very mindful that the drop in notified incidents may increase again before this is over.”

His comments came as the former deputy supreme commander Europe for NATO told insurers to brace themselves and their clients for the Middle East conflict lasting for years not months.

General Sir Richard Shirreff, who is also co-founder and managing partner of Strategia Worldwide, was speaking to insurers and risk managers in London at an event organised by risk intelligence company Russell on the threats posed by geopolitical risks and conflict.

He delivered a bleak outlook on the future geopolitical environment warning that the world was now “in the foothills” of a future global conflict.

He said the biggest current threat was the ongoing closure of the Strait which has left one fifth of the world’s oil and gas and many vital chemicals unable to transit the area.

Shirreff was talking to underwriters over the need for businesses to wargame their risks to get a more strategic view of current and future threats but added Washington had ignored concerns from its military advisors.

“The US Central Command will have war gamed the actions against Iran extensively before the operation and would have presented those results to Washington,” he explained. “It is likely those results have been ignored.

“The decision to ignore those war games has resulted in what we see now and the financial crisis it has caused.

“The military will give clear and objective advice, but it is a political decision. My concern is it will get worse.

“The decisions have been taken with no concern over the consequences and no idea how it would end. You do not start killing people unless it is to improve a situation and the Strait of Hormuz will be closed for years not months. Iran has Trump over a barrel and see the Strait as the ultimate bargaining chip.”