Some of the world’s leading climate experts have warned the strongest hurricane to hit Jamacia since records began is a taste of what is to come as climate change impacts increase.

Jamacia, Cuba and Haiti have begun their clean up efforts following the destruction caused by Hurricane Melissa which cut a swathe of devastation across the Caribbean last week.

However, climate scientists say the strength of the storm is yet another indication of the changing climate.

Dr Emily Vosper, senior research associate in Climate Extremes, University of Bristol, said: “Hurricane Melissa represents one of the strongest hurricanes to hit Jamaica in living memory, the slow-moving nature of Melissa, known as a stalling, makes it particularly hazardous.  Moving at around 5 km per hour, Jamaica will be exposed to high levels of rainfall for a prolonged period of time increasing the risk of severe flooding.

“In the Caribbean, severe rainfall hurricanes, such as Hurricane Maria which hit Puerto Rico in 2017, are twice as likely to occur¹ in the 2^oC warmer world compared to a 1.5^oC world. This is driven by the increased water holding capacity of the atmosphere by a rate of 7% per 1^oC of warming. This relation is known as the Clausius-Clapeyron effect and is observed in extreme rainfall². Hurricanes such as Melissa will therefore carry more rainfall³ than pre-industrial times as a result of climate change.

“The impact of climate change on the frequency of stalling hurricanes is less likely to have an impact. This study⁴ also found that the proportion of stalling hurricanes have not been shown to increase under climate change.”

Dr Mireia Ginesta, research associate in Climate Damages Analysis at the Oxford Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, said the changing climate is already exacerbating the risks of extreme weather events.

“We know that a warmer climate makes storms wetter and can make them stronger,” she explained. “When the atmosphere heats up, it can hold about 7 % more moisture for every degree of warming. This means that tropical cyclones now tend to produce heavier rainfall – and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has high confidence that both average and maximum rain rates in tropical storms and related systems have increased.

“Warmer oceans also provide more energy to storms, which can lead to stronger winds. On top of that, rising sea levels mean that storm surges are now starting from a higher baseline, making coastal flooding more dangerous. There is more uncertainty about other storm characteristics: how often they form, where they travel, or how long they last. The IPCC finds it likely that the share of very intense hurricanes (Category 3–5) has increased and that rapid intensification events are becoming more frequent. However, there is low confidence in any global trend in the total number of tropical storms.”

“For Hurricane Melissa we cannot yet say exactly how much climate change made it worse compared to natural variability. Rapid attribution studies, such as those by Climameter and World Weather Attribution, can provide early estimates, but a full scientific assessment takes longer and requires high-resolution data and detailed analysis. What we do know is that today’s warmer oceans, moister atmosphere, and higher sea levels influence every single storm by increasing its potential for heavier rain, stronger winds, and higher storm surge.”

Dr Michael Byrne, reader in Climate Science, University of St Andrews, said: “Right now, we cannot say for certain whether the intensity of Hurricane Melissa has been boosted by climate change – that detailed analysis will take time. But what we know for sure is that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic – the main development region for hurricanes – are now considerably warmer than the long-term average. These warmer surface temperatures, driven by climate change, are fuelling more intense hurricanes with more rainfall. As climate continues to warm, the world urgently needs to prepare for more and more of this kind of devastating weather event.”

Prof Chris Holloway, Professor in Convection, University of Reading, said the increasing global temperatures were having a profound effect on storm intensity.

“The sea surface temperatures in the central Caribbean have been about 1-2 degrees Celsius warmer than average over the last month, so this is consistent with climate change contributing to the threats posed by Hurricane Melissa,” he continued.  “Climate change likely increases the probability of very intense storms like this one because of warmer ocean temperatures, and there is increasing evidence that it leads to more rapid intensification on average as well, which was seen for this storm.  Climate change also leads to more water vapour in the atmosphere, which increases the potential for severe rainfall in these storms.  Lastly, sea levels are rising and will continue to rise with climate change, meaning that storm surge (coastal flooding) will be increasingly damaging for any given coastal location.”

When  asked will hurricanes on this scale become more common in the future Prof Ralf Toumi, director of the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, replied: ““We expect the frequency of these strongest storms to increase until we can stop the warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.”

Dr Leanne Archer, research associate in Climate Extremes, University of Bristol, concluded: “Climate scientists are clear that a heating planet is likely to fuel hurricanes that lead to larger storm surges (due to higher sea levels); more intense rainfall; higher intensities and a larger number of events that become the most catastrophic (Category 4-5 events). Hurricane Melissa has all these aspects.”

Jamacia, Cuba and Haiti have begun their clean up efforts following the destruction caused by Hurricane Melissa which cut a swathe of devastation across the Caribbean last week. However, climate scientists say the strength of the storm is yet another indication of the changing climate.