England have received a huge boost in their efforts to win the FIFA World Cup after Lloyd’s tipped them to emerge victorious.
The insurance market has successfully predicted the winners of the previous two tournament using the collective insurance value of the respsective squads as the benchmark for progress.
As squads prepare to head to Qatar Lloyd’s said in total, tournament players have an estimated insurable value of almost £22 billion, an increase of nearly £9 billion since 2018.
Lloyd’s is predicting that England will beat Brazil in the final with France, Argentina and Spain falling just short. The same model correctly identified Germany as winners in 2014 and France in 2018.
Research published with the support of the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) ranks the teams based on the collective insurable value of their players. The assessment of each insurable value comprises a variety of metrics such as wages, sponsorships, age and on-field position.
With an estimated insurable value of £3.17 billion, England edge out France (£2.66 billion) and Brazil (£2.56 billion) to claim the top spot. By way of overall comparison, the average insurable value of one England or France player is more than the entire Costa Rica squad.
Using this methodology to play out the tournament in full, Lloyd’s model sees the Three Lions finish top of Group B, before securing knock-out wins against Senegal, France, Spain and Brazil.
Lloyd’s has compiled a ‘most insurable team’ of players taking part across the tournament. England’s Jude Bellingham is rated the most insurable player at the FIFA World Cup, followed by France’s Kylian Mbappé and Brazil’s Vinícius Júnior.
The research found it pays to be young. Players aged between 18-24 have an average insurable value of £32 million compared to £12 million for players over 31.
Forward players’ average insurable value remains the highest at £34 million.
The market said while the prediction an interesting exercise there is a deeper meaning as the research is designed to emphasise the need for athletes at all levels and in all sports to consider their insurance protection packages and coverage. On an annual basis, Lloyd’s writes over £150m in sports-related Accident and Health (A&H) policies.
Lloyd’s chairman, Bruce Carnegie-Brown, said: ‘Insurance can play a key role in building confidence and resilience, knowing you’re covered if the worst happens.
“As Lloyd’s goes for the hat-trick of correct World Cup predictions, we’re shining a spotlight on the need for protection at all levels of the game – professional and amateur – to help clubs, competitors and communities make braver decisions both on and off the pitch.”