Leaders from across the world were in Bavaria this week for the annual Munich Security Conference.

The annual meeting normally passes with little media focus as politicians and NATO leaders reaffirm their commitment to mutual support and with it protection.

This year has been a very different event. It had been overshadowed by the geopolitical risks which are redefining trade and the world as we head into 2026.

The wounds from US President Donald Trump’s efforts to annexe Greenland are still smarting and the country’s secretary of state Mark Rubio’s speech where he doubled down in the view of what is wrong with Europe has done little to ease the tension.

However, what is of more concern is the growing exasperation from Europe’s leadership when  it comes to the Trump administration.

In her speech to the conference European Commission president Ursula Von der Leyen made it clear that Europe needed to become more independent.

She called for a stronger and more independent EU and in a panel discussion with UK prime minister Sir Keir Starmer  she reaffirmed her calls for Europe to become more independent in every aspect.

She stated: “Europe must become more independent – there is no other choice. Independent in every dimension that affects our security and prosperity. Defence and energy. Economy and trade. Raw materials and digital tech. (…) An independent Europe is a strong Europe. And a strong Europe makes for a stronger transatlantic alliance.”

Von der L:eyen added: “Defence spending in 2025 in Europe was up close to 80% since before the war in Ukraine. The EU is mobilising up to EUR 800 billion. With our SAFE programme, we are investing in the capabilities we need: from air and missile defence, to drones and military mobility. This is a true European awakening.”

She continued: “ We in Europe should be ready and willing to use our strength assertively and proactively to protect our security interests. We need a new doctrine for this – with a simple goal: to ensure that Europe can defend its own territory, economy, democracy and way of life at all times.”

NATO has been a key to ongoing peace for over half a century and there are now growing  divides.

For all the USA’s strong words the ability for the US to operate in Nato member countries has enabled them to create an early warning system and to monitor the movement of non-NATO military in the Atlantic and beyond. Indeed, the requirements to have bases in Greenland for those very two reasons were cited by Trump in his case for Greenland to be subsumed by the USA.

With global supply chains already under extreme pressure, with many businesses redrawing their supply chains any moves which may look to shift the military dial have to be a concern.

Jon Guy, Editor,

Emerging Risks