Despite fears over a looming El Niño the insurance industry believes the upcoming North Atlantic hurricane season may well be below average.

Following a slightly above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season that produced four major hurricanes – including three Category 5 storms and the devastating Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica – early indicators suggest the upcoming 2026 season is likely to experience activity hovering just below average.

While North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are not expected to reach the record-breaking levels observed in recent years, they remain above long-term averages across much of the basin, particularly in the western Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.

At the same time, forecasters anticipate the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will develop into the warm El Niño phase through the peak of hurricane season, with several models indicating the potential for a notably strong event. These conditions typically increase upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic basin, creating a less favorable environment for hurricane development.

The combination of warmer-than-average Atlantic SSTs, a projected El Niño pattern, and other evolving atmospheric and oceanic factors points toward a marginally below-average hurricane season overall.

“While we anticipate a more moderate season compared to recent years, the industry cannot afford complacency,” said Simon Hedley, CEO of Acrisure Re. “The lessons of recent hurricane seasons continue to reinforce that it only takes one major storm making landfall in a populated region to create significant human and economic loss. Preparedness and disciplined risk management remain critical.”

Despite the seasonal outlook, hurricane forecasting remains inherently uncertain, with a broad range of potential outcomes still possible. Based on current data and prevailing Atlantic and Pacific Ocean conditions, Acrisure Re’s internal forecasting model currently projects approximately 13 named storms during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, compared to the long-term average of 14.

“Intraseasonal variability and shorter-term atmospheric patterns will continue to influence when and where storms develop throughout the season,” added Ming Li, global head of cat modeling at Acrisure Re. “Although overall activity may trend closer to average, elevated ocean temperatures in key regions mean the potential for rapid intensification and impactful landfalls remains a significant concern.”

Broker Howden Re’s 2026 Pre-Season Hurricane Outlook predicts the hurricane season is expected to be quieter than usual. After several years of elevated activity, the outlook reflects a shift towards more balanced conditions across the Atlantic basin, according to early forecasts from major meteorological agencies and research groups.

These forecasting organisations are projecting lower storm counts and reduced accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), driven primarily by the expected development of El Niño conditions during the peak of hurricane season. El Niño typically increases upper-level wind shear across the Atlantic, making it harder for storms to form and intensify.

Anna Pergerson, managing director and head of catastrophe R&D at Howden Re, explains: “Seasonal forecasts provide useful context around the broader risk environment, but they don’t determine where storms will track or where losses will occur. Even in a below-average season, a single landfalling hurricane can drive significant insured losses.”

For the (re)insurance market, storm counts only tell part of the story. A Howden Re analysis found that ACE 60W, a regional subset of accumulated cyclone energy measuring storm activity west of 60° longitude, has historically been more closely linked to US insured losses than the number of storms in a season.

Howden added “While forecasts point towards a quieter season overall, the underlying risk environment remains elevated. Exposure growth along vulnerable coastlines, higher rebuilding costs, and the continued potential for rapid intensification mean that even a below-average season can still produce significant insured losses.”