Pierre du Rostu, CEO of AXA Digital Commercial Platform and Berend de Jong, global insurance and finance lead at Planet explains the rise in emerging risks has redefined how risk are managed.

Insurance has historically rested on a simple idea: that the past can help us to predict the future. David Hume argued in the 18th century that such a belief was irrational, since it relies on the unproven assumption that nature is uniform. Yet insurers have, for decades, collected historical data, analysed patterns and priced risk accordingly. And that approach has worked well enough. Whether it made sense in theory didn’t matter, because practical experience proved that it had merit.

But something has changed. The world has changed. As businesses buy insurance against a backdrop of escalating regional tensions, and as companies that own ports, logistics hubs or energy infrastructure try to limit their exposure, we are confronted with a new reality: that conflicts, climate-driven natural catastrophes and fragile supply chains in the present are what is really shaping risk, and that past data on its own is no longer a sufficient guide to how things will go.

Claims from floods, storms and wildfires have been rising in frequency and cost to the extent that in some parts of the world, the expected losses from disasters have started to outstrip what insurers can sustainably price. This is widening what insurers call the protection gap – the difference between the losses societies face and the amount of risk insurers are covering. Traditional insurance models ace growing strain in such conditions if they rely on historical records alone. If the world is sufficiently volatile that the future does not behave like the past, those records, though not worthless, must be complemented with more current, granular data.

When the world changes, insurance must change with it – and that’s what we’re seeing. Industry operators are evolving, moving from a reactive posture towards risk to a more proactive one. Rather than focus on paying claims after disaster strikes, they are increasingly playing the part of ‘partners in risk’, helping businesses anticipate, manage and – where possible – prevent catastrophe before it hits. This builds on long-standing risk engineering and prevention practices, now enhanced by new forms of data.

One of the most important new sources of information comes from Earth Observation. Planet, with its massive constellation of satellites, captures vast, daily imagery of landscapes and infrastructure. This continuous data stream gives insurers an up-to-date, dynamic picture of the physical world—a level of visibility unimaginable just a decade ago. Combining this daily data with AI allows insurers to augment historical records and develop a truly dynamic understanding of risk.

For insurers, this means they can watch risks as they develop instead of trying to piece events together after the damage is done. Rising water levels or changing land topography can signal an impending flood or landslide. Dry vegetation can show when the risk of a wildfire is rising. And it goes without saying that prevention is always cheaper than repair: if insurers and businesses see hazards early, they can act before losses mount. Operators might strengthen flood defences before heavy rain or clear vegetation near power lines during drought. These are extensions of established prevention practices, now informed by faster and more precise data.

Better information also changes how insurers respond once a disaster strikes. In the past, assessing damage meant sending inspectors into the field, which was slow and expensive. Satellite images now give a near-real time view of the affected area. Analysts can map flooded streets, damaged buildings, or burned forests within hours. This can speed up claims decisions and payouts, which leads to faster recovery for local communities. In many cases, on-site experts remain essential, particularly for complex losses, but remote assessment allows insurers to prioritise field visits where they are most needed and, for simpler claims, resolve cases more quickly.

The move to proactive, tech-driven risk management will not solve every problem that exists. But better data helps insurers judge where coverage still makes sense and where new approaches are needed. It improves the quality of decisions that would otherwise be based on instinct or guesswork.

Insurance has always adapted as risks change. Today the pressures are different than they were 10 years or 100 years ago, but the principle remains the same: better information leads to better decisions. Increasingly, that information comes from space.