The Strait of Hormuz has been very much the centre of the world’s attention in the past week.

While heatwaves in the UK and Europe have had millions running for cover, the situation in the vital shipping lane has been subject to significant focus.

The memorandum of understanding between the USA and Iran was set to open the Strait but within days Iran said it was now shut again amid allegations that the ceasefire had been breached.

The London market and Lloyd’s announced a new facility to cover war risks for those who attempt to transit the Strait and the International Maritime Organisation said it was launching a rescue effort to repatriate 11,000 seafarers still trapped in vessels.

Insurer Allianz Commercial also released its latest Safety and Shipping Review, which highlighted incidents like the closure and reported mining of the Strait of Hormuz are the latest in a series of recent disruptions to have impacted shipping. They signal a transition toward a “new maritime order” defined by escalating security risks along strategic shipping corridors, the disruption of established trade routes, persistent uncertainty, higher risk premiums, and a greater strategic emphasis on resilience over pure cost efficiency.

In addition to geopolitical uncertainty, traditional risks for the shipping industry remain a major concern, although the numbers of total vessel losses and incidents have continued to decline in recent years. Machinery damage or failure and fires are among the main loss drivers in this regard, leading to significant economic and insured losses.

Thomas Lillelund, CEO of Allianz Commercial explained:  “Our analysis shows the shipping industry has made significant improvements in maritime safety in recent years. However, it has also undergone a fundamental transformation, from decades of relative stability, defined by steady trade flows and largely predictable operating conditions to becoming increasingly complex and volatile. The Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure is just the latest in a series of severe interruptions to hit shipowners and cargo operators. Resilience, geopolitics, and efficiency must be balanced in an increasingly unpredictable world, where the cost of uncertainty is reshaping the shipping industry.”

Allianz Research data found that around 1,150 cargo-carrying vessels (over 100GT) with an estimated vessel and cargo value of approximately $125 billion, a volume of 29 million GT, and as many as 20,000 seafarers are in the Persian Gulf waiting to resume operations following recent diplomatic breakthroughs.

“This underscores the structural importance of maritime chokepoints and how critical they are for shipping and international trade, while also highlighting the severe disruptions to vessel operations and mental strain that has been placed on those seafarers who have endured months on board facing the threat of attack,” it added.

“We are seeing growing uncertainty around shipping routes. Any type of event – a conflict, pandemic or a grounded vessel blocking a key port or shipping canal- can potentially cause a major disruption to shipping and supply chains,” added Captain Rahul Khanna, global head of Marine Risk Consulting at Allianz Commercial. “The events in the Middle East have been more impactful than many would have expected. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz sets a dangerous precedent and raises questions around the long-term future of this and other critical chokepoints. What is becoming clear is that we have to pay a price for uncertainty, shifting from ‘just-in-time’ to ‘just-in-case’ supply chains, and prioritizing resilience over cost efficiency.”

Jon Guy, Editor,

Emerging Risks