Heatwaves signal need for wholesale infrastructure shift

As the UK and large parts of Europe begin to recover from a week- long heatwave which saw temperature records smashed scientists has warned the worst is yet to come.

As the UK issued only its second ever Red warning over threats to life from extreme heat, in France, Spain, Italy, and Belgium record temperatures impacted hundreds of millions.

Now leading climate scientists say the world needs to better prepare for a changing climate.

Professor Jesus Lizana associate professor in the Department of Engineering Science, ZERO Institute, University of Oxford, said: “Climate change is increasing heat exposure and cooling needs globally, with extreme heat events occurring more frequently, lasting longer, and affecting larger geographical areas.  Our recent findings show that the Central African Republic, Nigeria, South Sudan, Laos, and Brazil will experience the most significant increases in dangerously hot temperatures if the world reaches 2.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels.

“The UK is particularly vulnerable to extreme heat because our buildings, infrastructure and cities were designed for a cool climate, not for prolonged periods of high temperatures.  That means even temperatures that might be considered normal in southern Europe can have significant impacts here.  Heatwave thresholds in the UK are as low as 25–28°C, compared with 30 – 40°C in parts of the Mediterranean countries.  The challenge lies not only in increasing heat exposure but also in the vulnerability of our infrastructure to heat.  Countries that have lived with heat for decades have designed their buildings, cities and public services to cope with it, whereas the UK is still adapting to this new reality.”

He added: “A key finding from our recent climate research is that, when considering the total projected increase in heat exposure between 1.0ºC and 2.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, most countries will experience the largest increase in heat exposure during the current decade, as global temperatures rise from 1.0°C to 1.5°C – reaching up to 65% of projected changes.  This underscores the urgent need to accelerate adaptation efforts.  We are already behind.”

Dr Neil Maxwell, reader of Applied Environmental Physiology, Environmental Extremes Lab, University of Brighton, added: “Heatwaves are no longer rare events.  They’re becoming a regular part of British summers, which means knowing how to cope with extreme heat is becoming an increasingly important life skill.  This level of heat can affect anyone, not just traditionally vulnerable groups.  High temperatures, strong sunshine and warm nights place additional strain on the body, particularly when people continue with their normal routines.”

“One of the biggest mistakes people make is trying to carry on as normal.  During periods of extreme heat we need to adapt our expectations and behaviours.  Whether you’re exercising, travelling or working outdoors, planning ahead and slowing down can make a substantial difference.  Prevention is always easier than recovery.  As our climate continues to warm, these are skills that will become increasingly important for all of us.”

Professor Stefán Smith, professor of Energy Systems and the Built Environment, University of Reading said at present Britian is not ready for the changing climate.

“The UK is not prepared for the impacts of climate change,” he explained.  “Recent independent assessments make this clear.  The Climate Change Committee’s fourth Climate Change Risk Assessment found that around one-third of risks are now classed as “very high”.  It also concludes that current and planned adaptation measures are largely inadequate.

“In practical terms, this means extreme weather can damage critical infrastructure, cause irreversible losses, cost billions, and lead to thousands of excess deaths.

“Overheating in buildings is a key risk that now requires urgent action across England, Wales and Scotland.  Heatwaves are already becoming more intense, and millions of people are experiencing overheating in their homes.  Some adaptations are being introduced, but we still lack strong evidence on how effective these measures are, either on their own or in combination.

“Air conditioning is becoming more common in UK homes, with an estimated 8 to 19 per cent of households now using it.  However, around 80 per cent of purchases have been made since 2022, with uptake heavily concentrated in Greater London.  Air conditioning will be part of the solution, but when used at scale in a city causes extra local warming, further widening the gap between the air conditioning haves and have-nots.

“This points to a clear need for better long-term solutions.  Building design and urban planning must adapt to hotter conditions.  This includes making greater use of green and blue infrastructure to reduce heat in cities and improve resilience.”

Professor Hayley Fowler, professor of Climate Change Impacts, and Royal Society Faraday Discovery fellow, director of Centre for Climate and Environmental Resilience, Newcastle University, added: “Heatwaves are becoming more frequent, longer and hotter with climate change, as a direct result of the fossil fuels we are releasing as a society.  This particular heatwave has almost exactly the same atmospheric circulation set up as in July 2022 which produced record-shattering temperatures over 40 degrees in the UK.  The same sort of temperatures are forecast during this event, in June.  We can expect to have to cope with more and more of these types of events in the years to come.  Our current climate is the least extreme we will live in in our lifetimes, and certainly until we reach Net Zero, and we need to adapt urgently to live and work in these extreme temperatures.”

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