Scientists have reacted to new analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA) on whether human-induced climate change made the extreme weather driving the wildfires in Spain and France more likely, warning it is now time for action.

Leading figures from the scientific community said there is clear evidence of the impact human behaviour has had on European weather patterns.

WWA’s analysis found that The recent fires in France and Spain had particularly large impacts as extreme fire weather conditions coincided with high exposure. In France, the fires quickly propagated close to densely populated areas and major tourist destinations, requiring large-scale evacuations and exposing an increasingly urbanized region to both the fires and widespread smoke.

Very large amounts of pollutants have been released by the fires. In France, particulate matter in the nearby city of Bordeaux exceeded the level considered as “fair” air quality by a factor of 20, and extremely poor conditions were felt as far as 400 kilometres away. This led to the release and dissemination of the strategic national reserve of FFP2 masks to local pharmacies. Such hazardous air pollution contributes to an accumulation of detrimental conditions for a population already hit hard by repeated heatwaves since May.

The weeks leading up to the fires were characterised by a succession of extreme heatwaves and low rainfall across much of Western Europe, despite it still being comparably early in the season. Recent studies have shown human-caused climate change increased the likelihood of these hot and dry antecedent conditions, which were essential for the development of the extreme fire weather that enabled the fires.

“Severe fire weather is no longer rare under today’s climate,” it added. “As the likelihood of these compound fire weather conditions continues to increase, reducing wildfire risk will require not only effective fire suppression and cross-border coordination, but also greater emphasis on prevention through risk-sensitive landscape planning and management (e.g., increasing species diversity) and reducing exposure.

“While accelerated adaptation is crucial, there are also limits to adaptation. Limiting further increases in fire risk requires a rapid transition away from fossil fuels.”

Dr Imma Oliveras Menor, senior researcher at the University of Oxford and research director at the Institute de Recherche pour le Developpement, said: “This analysis provides evidence that human-caused climate change has contributed to hotter, drier and windier conditions which have increased the likelihood of more severe wildfires in southwestern France and central Spain in some weeks of July 2026. This is an attribution study of fire weather, not an attribution study of the wildfires themselves. The study does not establish that climate change has caused the fires, or is responsible for the area burned, or the resulting losses.”

She added: “Overall, the study supports the conclusion that climate change worsened the weather conditions conducive to severe fires, but it does not explain alone why these fires started, spread as they did, and causing such serious impacts. It shows that climate change is here and part of the cocktail that is causing these extreme wildfires.”

Professor Tim Palmer, Royal Society research professor emeritus in Climate Physics, University of Oxford, added: “The coming months will be critical for countries facing massive water shortages. If dry conditions continue into the winter, 2027 could be a truly catastrophic year for many European countries. The seasonal forecasts of El Nino and its global impacts will be anticipated with considerable eagerness.”

In Spain Dr Gustavo Saiz, a forestry engineer and senior scientist at the National Institute for Agricultural and Food Research and Technology (INIA-CSIC), said the warnings are clear.

“According to the analysis by World Weather Attribution, human-induced climate change has significantly amplified the major wildfires that have just devastated vast regions of central Spain and south-western France,” he explained. “The fires, described as among the worst ever recorded in both countries, have claimed several lives, destroyed thousands of homes and forced the evacuation of more than 300,000 people.”

“The report states that climate change has led to extreme weather conditions conducive to the occurrence of these fires,” Saiz continued. “Under current climate conditions, such high-intensity fires are expected to occur approximately once every six years in central Spain and once every 20 years in south-western France, demonstrating that climate change is not only intensifying individual fires but is also increasing their synchronisation across all regions, thereby exacerbating the humanitarian and environmental consequences.”

“A report such as this is only published if the evidence is solid,” he concluded. “The fact that the most cautious scientists are issuing such a stark warning should not only alarm us, but spur us to act now, by cutting emissions and preparing our ecosystems and societies for the stark reality that is already upon us.”