Energy supply chains under pressure amid manufacturer reliance

There are calls for the world’s governments to invest into greater resilience in the world’s energy supply chains against the backdrop of the war in the Middle East.

As US president Donald Trump told the media that he is considering an attempt to seize Iran’s oil capabilities and global governments issued a joint statement urging Iran to cease attacks on vessels looking to transit the Strait of Hormuz, the International energy Agency (IEA) has warned many energy technology supply chains contain at least one weak link.

The organisation has published new analysis which warned supply chains for many of the technologies shaping the emerging Age of Electricity remain highly concentrated in a small number of countries, underscoring the importance of strengthening industrial competitiveness and diversification.

The report, Energy Technology Perspectives 2026 (ETP-2026), analysed supply chains for mass-manufactured technologies including electric cars, batteries and renewable power equipment. The report found that the geographical landscape of manufacturing for these technologies – of which China holds by far the largest share – is unlikely to change significantly before the end of the decade, based on committed manufacturing and mining projects and market trends.

For the first time, the report includes an ‘N-1’ supply chain security analysis, assessing what would happen if the single largest supplier of a technology were removed from the market. It shows that production outside the largest exporting country, which is China for most steps of the supply chains analysed, could in principle meet most demand outside of China at the final manufacturing stages.

However, every major supply chain contains at least one step where less than a quarter of demand could be met without the largest manufacturer, meaning that a disruption at a single weak link could put the entire supply chain at risk.

“Many of the technologies central to the Age of Electricity are no longer niche markets, they are important and growing parts of the global economy. The market for them may well double over the next decade,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol. “While seeking to capitalise on this growth, governments and industry need to strengthen supply chain resilience and industrial competitiveness to reduce geographic concentration and ensure that the increasing deployment of these technologies also delivers energy and economic security.”

Under governments’ current policies, the global market for key energy technologies may grow from nearly $1.2 trillion today to around $2 trillion by 2035, roughly equivalent to the size of the global oil market last year, according to the report. Under governments’ stated policies, growth could be even stronger, with the market for the technologies potentially reaching almost $3 trillion by 2035.

“Trade remains central to energy technology markets,” the report added. “After dipping in 2024, the global value of gross trade in key energy technologies rebounded by around 10% in 2025, even as prices for some products declined.

“China remains the dominant force in clean energy technology manufacturing, accounting for 60-85% of production capacity across multiple supply chain steps. Chinese gross exports of clean energy technologies exceeded $165 billion in 2025, equivalent to about 15% of the country’s overall trade surplus.”

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