Energy giant bp has issued a new outlook which charts the pace of change to a sustainable future.

The company published its Energy Outlook 2025, exploring some of the global trends that may shape the future global energy system. This year’s edition explores two possible scenarios, Current Trajectory and Below 2°, and details a range of possible outcomes, key trends and uncertainties that could develop within energy markets over the next 25 years.

Spencer Dale, bp’s chief economist, said: “The future of the global energy system, including the likely speed and nature of the energy transition, is one of the most important and fascinating topics of our time. This year’s Outlook examines a range of issues including the changing structure of oil demand, the continuing electrification of the energy system, and the possible impacts of Artificial Intelligence on the energy system of the future.

“As the Outlook discusses, the world is currently consuming more of all kinds of energy. The trends that underpin that demand help determine what will be produced and consumed in the years to come.”

Dale added: “The energy system sits at the heart of modern-day society, critical for the everyday needs of people and businesses around the globe, and adapting to changing political, technological, and environmental priorities.

“That central role is why many of us choose to work within the industry. It is also why the challenges and forces shaping the global energy system are forever changing. And the past year has been no different.”

He said geopolitical tensions continue to be a huge issue for the industry.

“Geopolitical tensions, which came to the fore with the war in Ukraine, escalated further with the conflicts in the Middle East and the increasing use of sanctions and tariffs,” explained Dale. “Those tensions refocused attention on the importance of energy security. Increasing the priority on delivering secure and affordable energy is likely to affect countries in different ways.

“For some, it may mean reducing dependency on imported fossil fuels, and accelerating the transition to greater electrification, powered by domestic low carbon energy. We may start to see the emergence of ‘Electrostates’.

“Others may increase the emphasis on domestically produced fossil fuels, and resist increasing their dependency on low-cost international supply chains for low carbon technologies.”

On the move to a renewables future he added: “This year marks the 10th anniversary of the historic COP21 and the agreement of the Paris climate goals. Since then, carbon emissions from energy use and industry have risen every year, other than the Covid-induced dip in 2020. If CO2 emissions remain around current levels for the next 10 years, the ability of the world to remain within a 2°C carbon budget would become increasing challenging and costly.”

Dale continued: “Readers of previous bp Energy Outlooks will not be surprised that this year’s edition does not attempt to provide any definitive answers or recommendations. But it does present two scenarios – Current Trajectory and Below 2° – which can be used to explore some of the key uncertainties surrounding the future of the energy system stemming from differences in the speed and depth of the energy transition.
“And this year’s Outlook also develops three Sensitivities, designed to illustrate the possible implications of some of the other recent issues shaping the energy system: increased geopolitical fragmentation, sustained weakness in energy efficiency, and a growing risk of a delayed and disorderly transition.”