Pressure on the continued use of fossil fuels has increased as the International Energy Agency released its latest report on the state of the world’s energy sector.

As the COP30 summit continued in Brazil the IEA released its Energy Outlook 2025, which warned countries around the world are contending with pressing energy security threats and growing longer-term risks across an unprecedented range of fuels and technologies, thrusting energy into the heart of geopolitical tensions and elevating it as a core issue of economic and national security.

As such the outlook said the threats underscore the need for governments to pursue greater diversification of supplies and increased cooperation with one another to help navigate the uncertainties and turbulence ahead.

Among the many trends common to all the scenarios in this year’s WEO is the world’s growing need for energy services over the coming decades – with demand rising for mobility; for heating, cooling, lighting and other household and industrial uses; and increasingly for data and AI-related services.

In particular, a group of emerging economies – led by India and Southeast Asia and joined by countries in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America – are set to increasingly shape energy market dynamics in the years ahead. Collectively, they will take up the baton from China, which accounted for half of global oil and gas demand growth and 60% of electricity demand growth since 2010, although no country or group of countries comes close to replicating China’s energy-intensive rise.

Amid these shifts, traditional energy risks affecting the security of oil and gas supply are now accompanied by vulnerabilities in other areas, most visibly in supply chains for critical minerals due to high levels of market concentration, the outlook added. A single country is the dominant refiner for 19 out of 20 energy-related strategic minerals, with an average market share of around 70%. The minerals in question are vital for power grids, batteries and EVs, but they also play a crucial role in AI chips, jet engines, defence systems and other strategic industries. Geographic concentration in refining has increased for nearly all key energy minerals since 2020, and particularly for nickel and cobalt. Analysis in this year’s WEO of the pipeline of announced projects suggests that reversing this process is set to be slow, calling for stronger action by governments.

“When we look at the history of the energy world in recent decades, there is no other time when energy security tensions have applied to so many fuels and technologies at once – a situation that calls for the same spirit and focus that governments showed when they created the IEA after the 1973 oil shock,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol. “With energy security front and centre for many governments, their responses need to consider the synergies and trade-offs that can arise with other policy goals – on affordability, access, competitiveness and climate change. The World Energy Outlook’s scenarios illustrate the key decision points that lie ahead and, together, provide a framework for evidence-based, data-driven discussion over the way forward.”

“Analysis in the World Energy Outlook has been highlighting for many years the growing role of electricity in economies around the world. Last year, we said the world was moving quickly into the Age of Electricity – and it’s clear today that it has already arrived,” Birol said. “In a break from the trend of the past decade, the increase in electricity consumption is no longer limited to emerging and developing economies. Breakneck demand growth from data centres and AI is helping drive up electricity use in advanced economies, too. Global investment in data centres is expected to reach $580 billion in 2025. Those who say that ‘data is the new oil’ will note that this surpasses the $540 billion being spent on global oil supply – a striking example of the changing nature of modern economies.”

Speaking in Belem at COP30 Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics said: “The International Energy Agency shows what we’ve long known: continuing to back fossil fuels will make energy bills more expensive for everyday people. Investing in renewables means cheaper energy bills and is the fastest route to addressing energy poverty.

“Backing renewables is a win-win for people’s wallets and the climate – in fact, all the different futures mapped out by the IEA have renewables growing faster than any other energy source. Renewables are now unstoppable: solar power and batteries are now so cheap that continuing to invest in fossil fuels is a needless climate and economic risk.”

He continued: “With renewables booming and the risks of a fossil entrenchment on the rise, there is no time to lose accelerating the energy transition. The IEA’s Net Zero Scenario shows that, although overshoot is now inevitable due to insufficient action to date, it is still possible to bring temperatures back below 1.5°C before the end of this century.”