A rapid development into a strong El Niño event during July–September 2026 is set to bring extreme weather threats across the globe.

the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and are forecast to strengthen rapidly over the coming months, increasing the likelihood of heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events in many parts of the world.

In response the WMO community is stepping up coordination, climate information services and early warning support to help governments, humanitarian agencies, climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and health, and vulnerable communities prepare for potential impacts.

Then organisation has issued its monthly WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update which indicates a rapid development into a strong El Niño event during July–September 2026. Multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading global producing centres indicate a consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring regions.

“Forecast models show remarkable agreement, providing high confidence in the outlook,” it added. “El Niño is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its influence extending across many regions of the globe. Meanwhile, the equatorial Atlantic basin is expected to remain generally warmer than average.”

“El Niño conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event – as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts. This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world,” said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo.  “The WMO community has launched an unprecedented mobilisation to coordinate activities across the United Nations and at regional level to support governments, humanitarian organizations and climate-sensitive sectors.  Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities.”

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); one of the most powerful drivers of year-to-year climate variability. It is a naturally occurring climate patterns characterized by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last between nine and twelve months. They often begin developing between March and June, reach peak intensity between November and February, and exert their strongest influence on global temperatures during the year following their onset.

The effects of each El Niño event vary depending on the intensity, duration, time of year when it develops, and also how it interacts with other climate variability modes (such as the Indian Ocean Dipole). Not all regions of the world are affected, and even within a region, impacts can be different. Even when ENSO is neutral, extreme weather can still occur.

WMO classifies ENSO events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong. The term “super El Niño” is not part of WMO’s operational classification system and is therefore not used in official WMO products.

The Global Seasonal Climate Update predicts an overwhelming likelihood of above average temperatures across most land areas between 60°S and 60°N – which covers nearly all populated areas outside Polar regions.

Over the oceans, the equatorial Pacific reflects a heavily structured footprint of the rapidly intensifying El Niño event, with more than 80% likelihood of above-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific east of the Date Line. Above-normal temperatures are also predicted for the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic. In contrast, a persistent horseshoe-like pattern of below- to near-normal temperature probabilities is predicted across the North Atlantic.