Amid new warnings of the potential impact of the strengthening El Niño one experts has said that the threat of severe hurricane and typhoons could not be ignored.

The latest update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) described the El Niño as firmly established and will intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, with big impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat.

Forecasts from WMO’s Global Producing Centres indicate an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%” that El Niño will persist through to February 2027. This is the first time that a WMO El Niño/La Niña Update has been so unequivocal, reflecting the strong agreement within WMO’s extensive network.

Fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Niño is expected to strengthen further during the coming months to a very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of this year, with climate impacts continuing well into 2027.

“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race,” said UN secretary-general António Guterres

“El Niño in Spanish means boy child – but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response. Never before in the 50-year history of the World Meteorological Organization have we launched such a major mobilization with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services who are on the frontline of delivering the forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods,” she said.

“WMO is committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources,” she said.  “We have no time to lose.”

El Niño and La Niña are among the most powerful naturally occurring influences on the global climate system. A very strong event increases the likelihood of major changes in rainfall, temperatures and atmospheric circulation across many regions of the world.

However, the WMO added the strength of an El Niño event alone does not determine how severe its impacts will be in any individual country or region.

Its effects vary according to location and season and can be modified by other climate drivers, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.

James Peacock, Head Meteorologist at long-range weather prediction provider Metswift  said the threatbofn a sweverbe huirricane season could not be ruled iouot.

“Today’s El Niño forecast from the World Meteorological Organization shouldn’t be seen as ruling out high-impact Atlantic hurricanes this year,” he explained. “While it is unlikely, but not impossible, we will see even an average number of hurricanes, the season could still feasibly produce one or two high-impact events. For instance, a slow-moving tropical storm could swiftly release copious quantities of rainfall, increasing flooding losses in inhabited coastal areas. Additionally, it is possible a hurricane could find a ‘sweet spot’ and strengthen rapidly on approach to landfall – bringing well-known hurricane risks back into play.

“The warm waters generated by El Niño are also broadening the geographies potentially affected by tropical storm losses, with exceptionally warm waters off the coast of Western Europe increasing the risk of tropical storms reaching the region.

“(Re)insurers should therefore remain ready to respond to high-impact losses, both in traditional hurricane-prone areas as well as regions facing exaggerated tropical storm risk this season.”