Growing uncertainty in the global risk environment is putting trillions of dollars’ worth of investment decisions at risk.

Research by Willis has warned strategic decisions are becoming harder to execute because the conditions required to deliver them are changing at the same time.

Marking the 20^th anniversary of the Willis Research Network (WRN), the report, “The decision advantage”, argues that competitive edge increasingly depends not on predicting the future, but on recognising changing assumptions early enough to act before options narrow and value is lost. Intangible investment exceeded US$10 trillion in 2025 and investment across major economies could approach US$100 trillion between 2026 and 2030 if current patterns continue.

The report argues that organisations are not struggling to make decisions because of a lack of data, forecasts, or insight. The challenge is recognising when changing conditions should alter a strategic decision. AI deployment, electrification, workforce transformation, and security-driven growth increasingly compete for the same infrastructure, skills, capital, resources, and institutional capacity. Strategic opportunities can remain attractive while becoming harder to realise because the conditions required to deliver them are secured elsewhere first.

The report introduces a pathway to improve decision-making by helping leaders identify changing assumptions, assess what value is at stake, establish thresholds and triggers and generate evidence that actions improve outcomes. It also highlights the importance of assessing not only value that could be lost through disruption, but value that may never be realised because opportunities narrow, capacity becomes constrained or critical resources become unavailable.

The report explained: “The WTW Emerging and Interconnected Risks Survey illustrates this challenge. Approximately half of respondents were confident their organisation’s business model and strategy were resilient to the risks they faced at the time of the survey. Only 23% were confident their strategy would remain resilient to risks emerging over the following decade. Just 37% of decision makers and risk teams reported having an emerging-risk framework, register and management process.

“The findings point to a gap between recognising change and converting insight into action.”

It added: “Organisations can identify risks and understand that they are connected. It is harder to determine how those connections affect strategy, people, operations, financial performance, capital and risk financing.

“Artificial intelligence may appear on a risk register, but the strategic question is whether plans for AI-enabled growth assume continued access to power, computing capacity, data, specialist skills and trusted providers.

“Electrification may sit at the centre of a transition strategy, but delivery can depend on grid access, equipment, critical resources, permits, finance and skilled labour that many organisations are seeking at the same time.

“Workforce resilience may initially appear to be a people issue. Yet changes in health, care, skills, retirement and financial resilience can directly affect operating capacity, transformation plans and recovery from disruption. These are interconnected decisions.”

Helene Galy, managing director, Willis Research Network said: “The next 20 years will not be defined by a single technology, risk, or disruption but by the interaction of multiple systems competing for the same infrastructure, resources, skills, and capital. As organisations invest trillions of dollars in growth, transformation and resilience, competitive advantage will increasingly come from recognising changing assumptions before they become constraints.

“The organisations that succeed will not necessarily be those that predict the future most accurately. They will be those that create decision advantage by identifying what is changing, understanding what is at stake and acting before opportunities narrow or critical conditions become unavailable.”