Net zero has been high on the agenda this week with reports in the UK around its contribution to the national economy and also some criticism over the UK governments latest carbon removal targets.

However, the world has also been told national pledges fall short of pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C this century by more than 5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) per year by 2050.

The third edition of the State of Carbon Dioxide Removal report has warned closing this gap would require CDR grow at rates comparable to, or faster than, solar power and electric vehicles.

William Lamb, researcher and report author, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) said, “Countries have pledged around 2.7 billion tonnes of carbon removal by 2035 and about 3.6 billion by 2050, but climate pathways require much more, especially in the long term. This leaves a gap that grows significantly over time. Most pledges rely on forests and land, with newer technologies playing only a small role. Delays in cutting emissions would make this gap even larger.”

Today, the world removes about 2.2 billion tonnes of CO₂ from the atmosphere each year, almost all of it through land-based actions such as restoring forests. Novel technologies that use machines or minerals to lock away carbon only account for around 0.1 percent of total removals – but have been growing at 40 percent per year.

The report’s authors emphasised that cutting emissions remains the first and most important priority for tackling climate change, but CDR capacity is needed to address emissions that are hardest to eliminate. CDR is also fundamental to return warming to 1.5°C or below after an overshoot, as global emissions will need be net negative to reduce temperatures from their peak. Before net zero, CDR deployment can also contribute to capping peak warming at lower levels.

Sabine Fuss, PIK researcher and report author, explained: “We cannot rely on a single CDR method to close the gap. Conservative estimates for removal potentials from different methods are around 1 billion tons of CO₂ per year. A diverse portfolio of CDR methods, with different approaches tailored for different contexts and geographies, would help to preserve flexibility, reduce costs, and maximise sustainability benefits.”

In recent years, only about 20 percent of planned novel CDR capacity has actually been delivered, highlighting how challenging it is to bring new projects forward into operation.

The message was clear without faster cuts in emissions and stronger, more predictable demand for high-quality CDR, the gap between current capacity and targets will keep widening, making climate goals much harder and more expensive to achieve.

Jon Guy, Editor,

Emerging Risks