Scientists have said more needs to be done as the UK announced its revised carbon budget which spells out their net zero ambitions.

The UK’s Department for Energy Security & Net Zero (DESNZ) made the announcement as “Britain faces its second fossil fuel price shock in 5 years due to the war in Iran, the government is pursuing policies which deliver tangible improvements to the lives of working people – centred on getting Britain off the rollercoaster of fossil fuel markets and onto clean homegrown power”.

This week the government released its proposed level for the seventh Carbon Budget, which sets a science-led target of ~87% emissions reduction in the period 2038 to 2042 – endorsed by the Environmental Audit Committee and the Climate Change Committee.

It comes as an independent report from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, supported by analysis from the Confederation of British Industries Economics,  showed that the net zero economy supports over one million jobs in the UK, adding £105 billion in gross value added (GVA)  to the UK economy in 2025 alone, as it continues to thrive as one of the UK’s fastest- growing economic sectors.

The DESNZ added the new target is based on evidence-based assumptions about how the country will take a consumer choice-led approach to the adoption of technologies such as solar, batteries and EVs that will cut bills for families.

The level for the Seventh Carbon Budget has been chosen because:

• moving at pace to clean energy and net zero emissions is the best choice to reduce the exposure of UK families and businesses to more fossil fuel shocks, as the UK has seen following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Iran War
• it maximises the benefits of the clean energy and net zero transition, including to the economy, health and nature
• it is consistent with the Paris Agreement aim to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees, to avoid climate disaster for future generations

However, scientific experts believe that the new budget falls short of where it needs to be

Professor Kevin Anderson, professor of Energy and Climate change, University of Manchester, said: “The new target is, once again, defined by the limits of short-term political acceptability rather than by what is necessary to meet the UK’s Paris commitments. It fundamentally fails on 1.5°C and falls short of what is required to keep warming well below 2°C. In doing so, it further jeopardises the wellbeing of today’s children and future generations.

“Climate change is governed by physics, not political expediency. Temperatures respond to the cumulative build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. They do not care about distant net-zero dates or politically convenient targets. What matters is the total volume of emissions released over time.

“The science is clear. Limiting warming to 1.5°C has effectively been abandoned. The remaining challenge is to keep warming well below 2°C, yet current UK targets are not aligned even with that objective. Despite this, many experts continue to portray inadequate action as evidence of climate leadership.

“Strip away the political spin and the science is stark. Keeping warming below 2°C requires global emissions cuts of 8% every year starting now; three percentage points higher than the reduction achieved at the peak of the Covid pandemic – and that was for just a single year. For wealthy nations such as the UK, which repeatedly claim they will lead the transition, the rate of cuts needs to be in excess of 10% year on year. Contrast that with the UK government’s enthusiasm for widespread airport expansion!

“Many experts will publicly welcome the Government’s target, yet privately they know the numbers are incompatible with even the weakest interpretation of the Paris Agreement. Too often, influential voices have become more concerned with defending what is politically feasible than communicating what the science actually demands.

“Until we place physical reality ahead of political expediency, we will continue to fail on Paris. And failing on Paris means failing future generations.

“The maths is unforgiving.”

Professor Friederike Otto, professor of Climate Science, Imperial College London added: “It’s not just scientists who can see the reality of climate change in the weather we are experiencing. Things are changing and the impacts will simply continue to get worse as long as we burn fossil fuels. Reaching net zero – whether here in the UK, or in other countries around the world – is both a shared responsibility and a scientific imperative.”