One year after the Palisades and Eaton fires devastated Los Angeles County, new analysis of over 11 million California residential properties finds that approximately $1 trillion in residential property value is classified as low wildfire risk despite elevated fire danger across California.

The statewide analysis examined property-level wildfire risk for every residential structure in California using ZestyAI’s Z-FIRE™ model and compared the results with FEMA’s National Risk Index, which assesses wildfire risk at the census-tract level.

The findings reveal that 1.2 million California homes are designated as ‘Very Low,’ ‘Relatively Low,’ or ‘No Rating’ for wildfire risk under federal assessments, despite AI models identifying elevated wildfire danger at the property level—a classification gap that persists across the state.

The same classification gap is visible within the LA fire zones themselves. In the areas impacted by the Palisades and Eaton fires, the analysis identified 3,045 properties—worth an estimated $2.4 billion—that remain designated as low or non-existent wildfire risk under federal classifications, despite property-level AI models flagging elevated wildfire danger in these neighbourhoods before the fires occurred.

It found in the Palisades fire zone (Pacific Palisades, Malibu), 1,430 properties are flagged as elevated wildfire risk by AI models but classified as low or no risk under federal wildfire assessments It puts $1.14 billion in estimated residential property value at risk

In the Eaton fire zone (Altadena, Pasadena, Sierra Madre, La Cañada Flintridge) 1,615 properties flagged as elevated wildfire risk by AI models are classified as low or no risk under federal wildfire assessments it puts $1.29 billion in property value at risk, with located in census tracts FEMA rates “Very Low,” “Relatively Low,” or “No Rating”

The study added combined, these fire-devastated communities illustrate a pattern that persists statewide: wildfire risk is best understood by incorporating property-level conditions, not just regional averages – a distinction federal maps are not designed to capture.

“Wildfire risk today is driven by property-level conditions, not regional averages,” said Kumar Dhuvur, co-founder and Chief Product Officer at ZestyAI. “Federal maps operate at a scale that can’t see vegetation, defensible space, or building characteristics — the very factors that determine loss. That’s why the same blind spots that existed before the LA fires still exist across California.”

The study found that across California:

• 1.2 million properties rate as high wildfire risk on AI models but low or no risk on FEMA maps
• $940 billion in property value sits in these blind spots, based on a conservative median home price of $800,000
• Only 37.5% of California properties carry any FEMA wildfire rating; 62.5% have no federal wildfire assessment at all
• 300,859 blind-spot homes were built before 1980, predating modern fire-resistant building standards
• Significant concentrations appear in San Diego, San Bernardino, and Riverside counties, with additional clusters across the Inland Empire, Sierra Nevada foothills, and North Coast

“Unlike static, census-level federal assessments, property-level wildfire risk evolves over time as vegetation regrows, development expands, and mitigation measures are added or removed.” ZestyAI explained. “Our analysis tracked how both hazard exposure and home destruction risk changed between 2022 and 2025 across millions of California properties – revealing meaningful shifts that federal wildfire ratings do not reflect.”