A prediction of a below average North Atlantic hurricane season has come with a warning from insurance experts that it will take just one major storm to change the whole dynamic.

Experts at the Colorado State University’s (CSU) Department of Atmospheric Science have said they believe it will be somewhat below average for 2026.

Led by CSU senior research scientist Phil Klotzbach, Ph.D., a non-resident scholar at the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I), the CSU TC-RAMS research team forecasts 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes during the 2026 season, which starts on June 1 and continues through Nov. 30. A typical Atlantic season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

“At this point, we are anticipating a moderate/strong El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season,” Klotzbach said. “Typically, El Niño reduces Atlantic hurricane activity via increases in vertical wind shear. Water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are near average. We consequently do not anticipate tropical Atlantic water temperatures being as strong of a hurricane-enhancing factor as they were the past few years when water temperatures were much warmer than average in the tropical Atlantic.”

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season ended up an above-normal season, according to CSU, as measured by the number of major hurricanes and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE). It included 13 named storms, five hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are defined as those with wind speeds reaching Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The only U.S. landfall last year was Tropical Storm Chantal, which struck the South Carolina coast on July 6.

The most significant hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season was Hurricane Melissa, which made landfall as a Category 5 major hurricane in Jamaica, resulting in nearly $9 billion in damage in Jamaica and causing 95 fatalities across the Caribbean.

CSU’s forecast includes the following probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2026:

• 32% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)
• 15% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
• 20% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)
• 35% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%)

“While last year was a relatively quiet hurricane season for the continental U.S., all it takes is one storm to make it an active season for you and your family, so it is time to prepare as the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season’s start is less than two months away,” said Sean Kevelighan, CEO, Triple-I.

“This is an ideal time for homeowners and business owners to review their insurance policies with an insurance professional to ensure they have the right amount and types of coverage, allowing them to be financially protected for property damage caused by either wind or water,” Kevelighan added. “That also means exploring whether they need flood coverage, which is not part of a standard homeowners, condominium, renters, or business insurance policy. Additionally, homeowners can make their residences more resilient to windstorms and torrential rain by installing roof tie-downs and a good drainage system.”

Private-passenger vehicles damaged or destroyed by either wind or flooding are covered under the optional comprehensive portion of an auto insurance policy. About 75% of U.S. drivers carry comprehensive coverage, according to Triple-I.