Australia has been told it  should embark on a swift phase-out of fossil fuels – improving energy security for its citizens, bolstering its position as a Pacific leader and doing its fair share in combatting climate change.

The call comes in a new report released by global research institute Climate Analytics, which added Australia can bring fossil fuel use to zero by mid-century, in line with its stated international commitments to hold warming as close as possible to 1.5˚C.

“The Australian government has publicly backed a global transition away from fossil fuels more than once, first through the Global Stocktake agreed at the 2023 United Nations climate summit, and again last year when it signed the Belem Declaration ,” said report author Thomas Houlie. “And earlier this year, along with 50-odd other countries, it committed to developing a plan to phase out fossil fuels nationally. With this report, we’re showing the government and the Australian people how this national phase-out can be done.”

In the pathway developed by Climate Analytics, coal generation would end in 2034 and oil use would halve by 2035, with major reductions in fossil gas consumption. Renewables would generate virtually all of the country’s electricity by 2040, while transport and industry would switch almost entirely to electricity.

The organisation added Australia needs to cut production of coal and gas for export to reduce both the domestic emissions from producing those fossil fuels – and its global carbon footprint from exporting them. This would prevent the danger of infrastructure becoming ‘stranded assets’ as its trade partners also accelerate their transitions from fossil to clean energy.

While the government is officially targeting net zero emissions by 2050, the report shows that current policies would only halve gross emissions, leaving the other half to be ‘mopped up’ by unsustainably vast amounts of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) which would not be necessary under a rapid fossil fuel phase-out

“Overshooting the 1.5°C guardrail is in no-one’s interests, least of all Australia’s,’ said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics. “It heralds an era of even more serious climate impacts and potentially catastrophic risks, and sounds a deafening klaxon on the need to cut and eliminate fossil fuels as quickly as possible. The sooner we get out of fossil fuels the less carbon removal we’ll need.

“Thanks to our incredible renewable energy resources, Australia is one of the lucky countries able to lead the race to a fossil-free future and a safer climate. Many of our closest allies are looking to us for that leadership – and if they don’t find it in Canberra, they’ll be looking elsewhere.”

On the international stage, Australia will be running the international negotiations at this year’s UN climate summit, held in Türkiye in November.

“National fossil fuel phase-out plans will be a central issue for the negotiations,” said Hare. “And if the Prime Minister hasn’t got a plan that stacks up at home and internationally by then, he can expect to cop a lot of grief for failing to deliver a credible response to a burning issue.”