As the annual Airmic conference began in Edinburgh it has become clear that risk managers are growing increasingly concerned around the threat of political risk and political violence.

The association has used the event to launch a new report, “Political risk in the ‘year of elections” which warned that the growing political uncertainty has seen risk managers rushing to buy strike riot and civil commotion cover in an effort to protect their supply chains and international assets.

“A concurrence of electoral cycles across so many countries internationally provides a steady drumbeat of potential flashpoints throughout 2024, holding the attention of risk and security professionals, insurance markets, investors and analysts alike across the globe,” Airmic said. “The conversation has shifted – a rise in Strikes, Riots and Civil Commotion (SRCC) insurance claims experienced globally, particularly since 2019, has contributed to an increased market for specialist standalone Political Violence (PV) insurance. The billions of dollars of losses over the past six years are set to increase as results of elections emerge throughout this year”.

Airmic added: “Geopolitical tensions are at a generational high and 2024 is being widely referred to as the ‘year of elections’. By the end of the year up to 83 national elections will have been held in over 70 countries, representing 60% of global GDP. The UK’s general election will be held on 4 July, while the US election set for 5 November will be the most consequential of them all.

“Following the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in May, Iran’s presidential elections will now be brought forward, and will pose a tricky test for the country’s rulers.

“Some of 2024’s electoral contests have already taken place. Globally diverse territories such as Argentina, South Africa, Taiwan and Turkey have witnessed some hard-fought elections. In some of these places, unanswered political questions or simmering social tensions remain. Other elections remain ahead across the globe, such as Ghana, Mexico, Venezuela, the UK and, of course, the United States.”

However, a rise in SRCC insurance claims experienced globally, particularly in the period from 2019, has contributed to an increased market for specialist standalone Political Violence (PV) insurance.

“I think it has become part of the risk matrix, risk analysis and risk assessment that every good risk manager does,” says Zouheb Azam, head of political violence and terrorism, Africa Specialty Risks.

“The conversation has shifted,” says Srdjan Todorovic, head of terrorism and hostile environment solutions, Allianz Commercial. “It makes no sense to ignore a peril that has had billions of dollars of losses over the past six years and is potentially increasing with the election cycle and the subsequent results of those elections.”