There are new warnings to businesses across the world, that the threat from cyber criminals is set to increase significantly as they implement Artificial intelligence (AI) in their ransomware attacks.

The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), part of the UK’s GCHQ, issued the warning it published a new study which found  that AI is expected to increase the global ransomware threat over the next two years.

The near-term impact of AI on the cyber threat assessment concludes that AI is already being used in malicious cyber activity and will almost certainly increase the volume and impact of cyber-attacks, including ransomware, in the near term.

Among other conclusions, the report suggests that by lowering the barrier of entry to novice cyber criminals, hackers-for-hire and hacktivists, AI enables relatively unskilled threat actors to carry out more effective access and information-gathering operations. This enhanced access, combined with the improved targeting of victims afforded by AI, will contribute to the global ransomware threat in the next two years.

NCSC CEO Lindy Cameron said: “We must ensure that we both harness AI technology for its vast potential and manage its risks – including its implications on the cyber threat.

“The emergent use of AI in cyber-attacks is evolutionary not revolutionary, meaning that it enhances existing threats like ransomware but does not transform the risk landscape in the near term.

“As the NCSC does all it can to ensure AI systems are secure-by-design, we urge organisations and individuals to follow our ransomware and cyber security hygiene advice to strengthen their defences and boost their resilience to cyber-attacks.”

The report said ransomware continues to be the most acute cyber threat facing UK organisations and businesses, with cyber criminals adapting their business models to gain efficiencies and maximise profits.

To tackle this enhanced threat, the Government has invested £2.6 billion under its Cyber Security Strategy to improve the UK’s resilience, with the NCSC and private industry already adopting AI’s use in enhancing cyber security resilience through improved threat detection and security-by-design.

The Bletchley Declaration, agreed at the UK-hosted AI Safety Summit at Bletchley Park in November, also announced a first-of-its-kind global effort to manage the risks of frontier AI and ensure its safe and responsible development. In the UK, the AI sector already employs 50,000 people and contributes £3.7 billion to the economy.

Analysis from the NCA suggests that cyber criminals have already started to develop criminal Generative AI (GenAI) and to offer ‘GenAI-as-a-service’, making improved capability available to anyone willing to pay. Yet, as the NCSC’s new report makes clear, the effectiveness of GenAI models will be constrained by both the quantity and quality of data on which they are trained.

The growing commoditisation of AI-enabled capability mirrors warnings from a report jointly published by the two agencies in September 2023 which described the professionalising of the ransomware ecosystem and a shift towards the “ransomware-as-a-service” model.

According to the NCA, it is unlikely that in 2024 another method of cyber-crime will replace ransomware due to the financial rewards and its established business model.

James Babbage, director general for Threats at the National Crime Agency, explained: “Ransomware continues to be a national security threat. As this report shows, the threat is likely to increase in the coming years due to advancements in AI and the exploitation of this technology by cyber criminals.

“AI services lower barriers to entry, increasing the number of cyber criminals, and will boost their capability by improving the scale, speed and effectiveness of existing attack methods. Fraud and child sexual abuse are also particularly likely to be affected.

“The NCA will continue to protect the public and reduce the serious crime threat to the UK, including by targeting criminal use of GenAI and ensuring we adopt the technology ourselves where safe and effective.”

David Critchley, regional manager UKI at Armis “The NCSC’s latest report confirms what we already know: AI is being exploited on a massive scale for cyberattacks. The accessibility and prevalence of AI tools has meant novice attackers can execute sophisticated attacks that bypass traditional detection, all with minimal expertise or effort.

“As the findings state, ransomware is rampant. Bad actors are using AI-crafted phishing campaigns and automated attacks to infiltrate networks on a larger scale. In fact, data from the Armis Asset Intelligence Engine reveals that 38% of vulnerabilities on digital assets across Europe are weaponised, with 21% of these directly associated with ransomware attacks.

“Without proper attack surface management and automation, organisations face imminent challenges from generative AI surpassing human capabilities. Proactive security measures provide organisations with network insights, which can detect breaches and anomalous behaviours. Prioritisation and ongoing monitoring play a crucial role in addressing threats hierarchically, considering potential impact and exploitation level.”

“The emergent use of AI in cyber-attacks is evolutionary not revolutionary, meaning that it enhances existing threats like ransomware but does not transform the risk landscape in the near term.

Lindy Cameron, NCSC