Weather experts have warned the world is braced to hit the global warming target set in the Paris Agreement in the coming months and with it face a rising threat of extreme weather events.

The sobering news came as the Met Office outlook for the global average temperature in 2026 suggests an extension of the run of years with a value above 1.4°C, compared to pre-industrial levels.  The team behind the report warned that every fraction of a degree counts amid growing concerns over the effects ion the world’s weather patterns.

The central estimate for the forecast next year is 1.46°C, which is marginally lower than the value of 1.55°C recorded in 2024 – the current warmest year on record.

The forecast suggests that it is likely to be one of the four warmest years for global average temperature, likely falling in just behind the value in 2024 which recorded 1.55°C above the pre-industrial average (1850-1900).

The observational series of global average temperature records extends back to 1850.

Professor Adam Scaife has led the team behind the Met Office’s global forecast for 2026 and said that the world was set to continue to see records threatened.

He explained: “The last three years are all likely to have exceeded 1.4°C and we expect 2026 will be the fourth year in succession to do this. Prior to this surge, the previous global temperature had not exceeded 1.3°C.”

The study added the average global temperature for 2026 is forecast to be between 1.34°C and 1.58°C, with a central estimate of 1.46°C, above the average for the pre-industrial period which spanned from 1850-1900. This would make 2026 the fourth year in succession that temperatures will have reached at least 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels.

The Met Office’s Dr Nick Dunstone, who led production of the forecast, said: “2024 saw the first temporary exceedance of 1.5°C and our forecast for 2026 suggests this is possible again. This highlights how rapidly we are now approaching the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target.”

“The scientific community has repeatedly warned that warming of more than 1.5°C risks unleashing ever more severe climate change impacts and extreme weather, and decreases adaptation options,” the study added. “Avoiding every fraction of a degree of warming matters to minimise these risks.”

Using a combination of observations from the last decade and projections for the next ten years (2015-2034), the WMO estimated earlier this year in the State of the Global Climate report that the current global warming level is 1.37°C above the average of the period from 1850-1900.